Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle



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Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.6836.648
202.0314.353
301.6253.288
401.3342.521
501.1071.994
600.9211.542
700.7431.204
800.5690.899
900.3600.590

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.65819.176
24.69413.703
34.03012.006
43.70610.767
53.4319.929
63.2328.867
73.0418.186
82.9177.593
92.8057.040
102.6836.648
112.5736.338
122.4966.009
132.4255.769
142.3595.537
152.2985.290
162.2365.100
172.1754.885
182.1284.673
192.0764.492
202.0314.353
211.9774.222
221.9294.079
231.8823.981
241.8503.842
251.8113.756
261.7603.684
271.7263.575
281.6893.490
291.6543.393
301.6253.288
311.5923.194
321.5573.101
331.5233.028
341.4962.958
351.4682.862
361.4372.788
371.4092.714
381.3842.647
391.3562.592
401.3342.521
411.3102.454
421.2892.405
431.2692.364
441.2442.308
451.2192.258
461.1962.204
471.1692.155
481.1482.091
491.1262.044
501.1071.994
511.0881.949
521.0671.904
531.0511.852
541.0321.803
551.0141.754
560.9951.696
570.9771.662
580.9581.628
590.9361.590
600.9211.542
610.8991.495
620.8861.461
630.8701.429
640.8501.390
650.8331.361
660.8191.331
670.7961.303
680.7821.267
690.7621.230
700.7431.204
710.7231.169
720.7061.141
730.6891.108
740.6711.079
750.6511.047
760.6321.019
770.6120.988
780.5980.960
790.5830.934
800.5690.899
810.5450.867
820.5250.837
830.5020.803
840.4830.774
850.4640.750
860.4450.717
870.4260.684
880.4010.657
890.3830.625
900.3600.590
910.3360.558
920.3080.520
930.2840.479
940.2570.430
950.2260.395
960.1970.356
970.1510.297
980.1010.247
990.0190.189


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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