Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle



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Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle ( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1043.32032.703
2037.27525.341
3033.20720.805
4029.59016.890
5026.55613.820
6023.47410.940
7020.7028.646
8017.3776.509
9013.1834.315

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
160.08752.220
255.15445.950
352.89443.496
450.58941.481
548.86139.989
647.54637.915
746.05436.457
845.16335.093
944.25133.729
1043.32032.703
1142.65431.849
1241.75730.905
1341.27030.187
1440.68829.465
1540.01628.670
1639.48128.036
1738.97627.295
1838.38126.537
1937.80125.869
2037.27525.341
2136.76924.830
2236.29224.261
2335.86123.862
2435.46923.279
2535.07522.914
2634.62922.599
2734.26022.119
2833.88421.737
2933.54221.293
3033.20720.805
3132.93520.358
3232.56819.904
3332.10919.545
3431.73119.192
3531.36818.707
3630.95518.320
3730.59217.933
3830.21717.573
3929.94317.278
4029.59016.890
4129.25216.516
4228.97316.239
4328.65816.006
4428.32915.687
4528.07015.400
4627.81915.080
4727.54914.790
4827.30014.412
4926.94814.127
5026.55613.820
5126.24513.542
5225.94913.264
5325.67412.941
5425.39712.632
5525.12312.321
5624.76911.945
5724.39611.724
5824.07011.502
5923.81511.258
6023.47410.940
6123.14010.625
6222.91110.396
6322.68210.183
6422.4169.923
6522.0749.722
6621.7409.517
6721.5069.326
6821.2559.079
6920.9748.827
7020.7028.646
7120.3728.401
7219.9388.205
7319.6567.977
7419.2787.774
7518.9427.551
7618.5967.353
7718.1897.138
7817.8836.941
7917.6466.753
8017.3776.509
8116.9966.281
8216.6766.066
8316.1835.823
8415.8175.622
8515.3695.448
8614.9715.216
8714.5184.979
8814.0574.789
8913.6994.563
9013.1834.315
9112.6434.084
9212.0813.815
9311.3693.532
9410.8533.190
9510.3252.948
969.4592.673
978.6212.275
987.4831.937
995.7631.547


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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