Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


Return to catchment list
Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle



Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle ( Jan  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.1785.376
201.6223.547
301.2772.674
401.0462.035
500.8501.587
600.6851.197
700.5390.903
800.3830.632
900.2170.351

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
14.22014.651
23.51010.775
33.1399.475
42.9118.572
52.7177.896
62.5887.111
72.4426.585
82.3546.118
92.2745.686
102.1785.376
112.0905.131
122.0224.876
131.9424.687
141.8894.478
151.8354.292
161.7914.148
171.7513.960
181.7003.800
191.6653.657
201.6223.547
211.5853.438
221.5423.314
231.5043.244
241.4683.130
251.4293.061
261.4013.002
271.3642.910
281.3332.839
291.3072.761
301.2772.674
311.2482.597
321.2262.517
331.2042.457
341.1822.401
351.1552.320
361.1322.259
371.1092.197
381.0902.141
391.0712.094
401.0462.035
411.0231.978
420.9991.937
430.9821.901
440.9651.854
450.9471.813
460.9281.765
470.9101.725
480.8861.671
490.8681.630
500.8501.587
510.8351.548
520.8181.511
530.8001.465
540.7811.425
550.7661.380
560.7491.332
570.7341.302
580.7191.272
590.7001.240
600.6851.197
610.6671.157
620.6531.127
630.6391.100
640.6231.067
650.6111.041
660.5971.014
670.5810.990
680.5650.958
690.5530.926
700.5390.903
710.5240.872
720.5110.847
730.4960.818
740.4810.792
750.4640.764
760.4480.739
770.4290.712
780.4110.687
790.3990.663
800.3830.632
810.3670.603
820.3540.576
830.3410.545
840.3270.519
850.3080.497
860.2940.467
870.2750.437
880.2570.412
890.2400.383
900.2170.351
910.2000.321
920.1740.285
930.1520.248
940.1250.202
950.1030.169
960.0770.132
970.0460.076
980.0090.028
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence