Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.9322.510
Median4.3744.652
Mean5.0216.251
75% Quartile6.4608.081
Interquartile Range3.5285.571

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114.69829.891
213.03123.032
312.11020.749
411.11419.049
510.51917.831
610.09116.318
79.76715.313
89.45914.410
99.08513.559
108.82912.946
118.58012.454
128.36211.930
138.13211.540
147.95111.154
157.78610.743
167.64210.428
177.46910.061
187.3069.695
197.1579.384
207.0199.144
216.8848.915
226.7768.654
236.6938.488
246.5598.235
256.4618.083
266.3177.951
276.1937.747
286.0927.588
296.0077.414
305.9077.216
315.8177.042
325.7236.860
335.6356.721
345.5526.592
355.4576.404
365.3796.262
375.3116.117
385.2095.986
395.1405.877
405.0575.736
414.9895.600
424.9045.502
434.8435.417
444.7725.305
454.7105.204
464.6375.089
474.5644.990
484.5004.858
494.4384.757
504.3744.652
514.3204.556
524.2634.463
534.2064.348
544.1594.247
554.1074.134
564.0474.011
573.9913.936
583.9323.859
593.8693.778
603.8003.667
613.7483.562
623.6753.485
633.6293.412
643.5723.326
653.5113.257
663.4643.188
673.4093.123
683.3473.038
693.2962.952
703.2472.890
713.1792.805
723.1182.737
733.0582.658
742.9842.588
752.9322.510
762.8862.440
772.8162.364
782.7622.295
792.6922.228
802.6382.140
812.5802.058
822.5261.980
832.4571.891
842.3961.817
852.3381.752
862.2771.665
872.1901.575
882.1371.502
892.0411.414
901.9661.317
911.8841.225
921.8131.116
931.7330.998
941.6160.854
951.5220.748
961.3910.625
971.2500.440
981.0760.276
990.9040.074


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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