Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.9370.764
Median1.5391.587
Mean1.8402.432
75% Quartile2.4223.060
Interquartile Range1.4852.297

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.25114.651
25.33910.775
34.9119.475
44.5808.572
54.2867.896
64.0887.111
73.9006.585
83.7656.118
93.6265.686
103.5035.376
113.4095.131
123.3144.876
133.1974.687
143.1144.478
153.0274.292
162.9724.148
172.8963.960
182.8193.800
192.7483.657
202.6813.547
212.6303.438
222.5693.314
232.5233.244
242.4783.130
252.4233.061
262.3713.002
272.3212.910
282.2792.839
292.2322.761
302.1902.674
312.1572.597
322.1272.517
332.0872.457
342.0522.401
352.0132.320
361.9772.259
371.9512.197
381.9122.141
391.8792.094
401.8402.035
411.8141.978
421.7791.937
431.7461.901
441.7121.854
451.6891.813
461.6621.765
471.6321.725
481.6051.671
491.5691.630
501.5391.587
511.5171.548
521.4921.511
531.4631.465
541.4381.425
551.4161.380
561.3941.332
571.3721.302
581.3471.272
591.3161.240
601.2861.197
611.2591.157
621.2331.127
631.2121.100
641.1861.067
651.1681.041
661.1471.014
671.1290.990
681.1050.958
691.0850.926
701.0620.903
711.0380.872
721.0100.847
730.9810.818
740.9580.792
750.9370.764
760.9120.739
770.8850.712
780.8590.687
790.8380.663
800.8170.632
810.7950.603
820.7700.576
830.7410.545
840.7140.519
850.6870.497
860.6620.467
870.6320.437
880.6040.412
890.5690.383
900.5350.351
910.5060.321
920.4780.285
930.4350.248
940.3950.202
950.3550.169
960.3130.132
970.2640.076
980.1880.028
990.1130.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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