Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle


Return to catchment list
Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.6160.642
Median1.0571.398
Mean1.3672.453
75% Quartile1.7492.905
Interquartile Range1.1332.263

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.89418.011
24.67612.427
34.12010.720
43.8369.502
53.5038.658
63.2457.646
73.0816.995
82.9286.427
92.7935.905
102.6665.538
112.5845.249
122.4884.946
132.4124.724
142.3424.508
152.2704.281
162.1994.110
172.1293.913
182.0733.720
192.0253.558
201.9863.435
211.9303.319
221.8763.187
231.8353.105
241.7972.980
251.7502.906
261.7072.842
271.6722.745
281.6382.669
291.6042.587
301.5732.495
311.5352.414
321.5022.331
331.4722.269
341.4402.211
351.4112.127
361.3842.065
371.3582.002
381.3361.945
391.3081.899
401.2851.839
411.2591.782
421.2341.741
431.2091.705
441.1851.659
451.1601.618
461.1391.572
471.1201.532
481.0991.479
491.0781.440
501.0571.398
511.0381.361
521.0191.325
530.9991.281
540.9821.243
550.9621.201
560.9391.155
570.9191.128
580.9031.099
590.8851.070
600.8701.030
610.8570.993
620.8370.966
630.8230.941
640.8070.911
650.7870.887
660.7720.863
670.7570.841
680.7380.813
690.7190.784
700.7000.764
710.6850.736
720.6690.714
730.6520.689
740.6340.667
750.6150.642
760.5980.620
770.5780.597
780.5590.575
790.5370.555
800.5220.529
810.5070.505
820.4900.482
830.4720.456
840.4570.435
850.4450.417
860.4280.392
870.4040.368
880.3840.348
890.3640.324
900.3430.299
910.3200.275
920.2950.248
930.2740.219
940.2500.184
950.2150.159
960.1830.132
970.1530.092
980.1130.058
990.0490.019


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence