Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.3721.850
Median3.8273.279
Mean4.6674.765
75% Quartile5.9795.830
Interquartile Range3.6063.980

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
117.22726.291
214.15319.245
312.76617.025
411.73015.390
511.00214.278
610.46312.859
79.93211.942
89.49011.140
99.02810.389
108.6999.854
118.4369.429
128.2258.977
138.0018.646
147.7688.325
157.5607.982
167.3797.718
177.1917.418
187.0267.122
196.8186.868
206.6566.673
216.5426.489
226.3306.287
236.1836.149
246.0815.952
255.9795.830
265.8735.727
275.7825.572
285.6765.451
295.5905.312
305.4925.162
315.3855.027
325.2664.893
335.1684.788
345.0804.687
354.9884.549
364.9034.441
374.8084.334
384.7254.237
394.6334.157
404.5464.054
414.4613.956
424.3813.884
434.3083.823
444.2313.742
454.1583.669
464.0693.588
474.0103.516
483.9423.423
493.8873.353
503.8273.279
513.7503.212
523.6913.145
533.6303.068
543.5702.996
553.5002.923
563.4432.835
573.3772.784
583.3092.733
593.2572.677
603.1872.605
613.1342.533
623.0872.481
633.0182.434
642.9672.375
652.9162.330
662.8532.285
672.8092.242
682.7552.187
692.7072.131
702.6482.091
712.6072.037
722.5631.994
732.4911.944
742.4321.899
752.3721.850
762.3111.807
772.2611.759
782.2201.716
792.1621.675
802.1131.621
812.0441.571
821.9831.524
831.9101.470
841.8501.426
851.7911.387
861.7431.336
871.7011.283
881.6341.240
891.5681.190
901.5001.134
911.4141.081
921.3531.020
931.2460.955
941.1380.875
951.0450.819
960.9470.753
970.8150.657
980.6780.573
990.5120.474


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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