Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile6.4055.455
Median9.8219.721
Mean11.20213.254
75% Quartile14.65217.133
Interquartile Range8.24711.678

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
132.84558.134
229.39947.326
327.14643.326
425.37140.158
524.22737.888
623.28634.843
722.08832.785
821.50130.924
920.71929.127
1020.10827.816
1119.49626.755
1219.03425.610
1318.57824.760
1418.13723.924
1517.66823.023
1617.28322.322
1716.92421.518
1816.58820.715
1916.31620.023
2016.01419.487
2115.69018.976
2215.39918.416
2315.15618.030
2414.89917.476
2514.65317.133
2614.38016.841
2714.14316.401
2813.86916.056
2913.59015.661
3013.34915.231
3113.08414.844
3212.86014.456
3312.63014.154
3412.42213.859
3512.22313.459
3612.05513.144
3711.89812.833
3811.71812.547
3911.58812.314
4011.41812.012
4111.23511.723
4211.03611.511
4310.87811.333
4410.68811.092
4510.53810.877
4610.37610.639
4710.25310.425
4810.08410.149
499.9609.942
509.8219.721
519.6319.522
529.4849.324
539.3149.096
549.1268.879
558.9958.662
568.8618.401
578.7048.249
588.5928.096
598.4337.929
608.3207.713
618.1747.499
628.0307.344
637.9227.201
647.7747.027
657.6346.892
667.5246.755
677.4276.628
687.2816.464
697.1476.297
707.0316.177
716.9046.015
726.7865.885
736.6475.735
746.5115.601
756.4025.454
766.2705.324
776.1085.183
785.9555.053
795.8054.930
805.6794.769
815.5474.619
825.4194.477
835.2634.317
845.0794.184
854.9434.069
864.7633.915
874.5763.757
884.4323.631
894.2963.480
904.1263.312
913.9673.157
923.8112.974
933.5472.780
943.3182.545
953.0732.376
962.8442.182
972.5831.898
982.2041.651
991.8011.360


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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