Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile11.6758.025
Median17.01315.258
Mean18.77417.899
75% Quartile24.01125.243
Interquartile Range12.33517.218

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
148.25655.120
243.44448.831
340.59146.363
438.75544.333
537.18342.828
635.89040.731
734.84439.252
833.81237.866
932.75336.476
1031.82735.428
1131.16234.554
1230.48433.584
1329.87232.845
1429.24332.101
1528.60331.278
1627.98130.622
1727.43729.851
1826.92729.061
1926.50928.362
2026.07627.808
2125.66027.271
2225.20126.670
2324.79026.249
2424.36825.631
2524.02225.243
2623.71024.908
2723.35624.395
2823.07323.987
2922.78023.511
3022.36622.985
3121.98322.502
3221.60422.010
3321.30821.621
3421.04021.236
3520.82720.707
3620.57420.282
3720.29019.858
3820.01919.461
3919.71419.135
4019.48318.706
4119.18618.290
4218.92117.981
4318.62017.721
4418.40217.364
4518.17317.043
4617.89216.683
4717.66916.356
4817.43115.930
4917.25915.607
5017.01315.258
5116.79414.942
5216.54214.626
5316.33114.257
5416.13313.904
5515.99213.547
5615.78813.115
5715.58412.861
5815.35812.605
5915.15412.324
6014.97411.957
6114.74811.592
6214.50411.327
6314.32111.080
6414.10310.779
6513.84610.545
6613.60610.307
6713.41010.086
6813.2199.799
6913.0379.506
7012.8369.296
7112.5569.011
7212.3858.784
7312.1708.519
7411.9758.284
7511.6748.025
7611.4557.795
7711.2257.546
7810.9717.318
7910.7047.102
8010.4816.820
8110.2556.558
829.9856.311
839.7806.033
849.5915.803
859.3245.606
869.0405.342
878.7895.073
888.5544.859
898.2344.606
907.8874.328
917.6434.072
927.2723.774
937.0173.462
946.6303.091
956.0492.830
965.6612.536
975.1702.118
984.6191.769
993.6781.375


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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