Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile11.7226.804
Median15.96212.609
Mean17.35314.903
75% Quartile21.69420.794
Interquartile Range9.97213.991

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
141.59547.050
237.39841.420
335.03939.218
433.52037.411
532.29236.074
631.15834.215
730.07132.909
829.19331.687
928.30430.467
1027.64829.548
1127.20328.785
1226.58227.940
1326.11427.298
1425.61726.653
1525.18425.941
1624.71325.375
1724.32124.712
1823.93924.035
1923.60923.438
2023.27522.966
2122.90422.509
2222.50021.999
2322.22121.643
2422.02621.122
2521.69520.795
2621.46120.513
2721.15620.083
2820.92019.741
2920.66519.344
3020.40618.906
3120.16118.506
3219.94518.098
3319.62817.777
3419.40217.459
3519.17117.024
3618.88516.676
3718.59716.328
3818.30616.005
3918.07015.739
4017.89215.389
4117.68715.052
4217.50114.802
4317.31414.591
4417.12714.302
4516.90414.043
4616.70013.753
4716.53513.490
4816.33813.147
4916.15112.888
5015.96212.609
5115.76712.356
5215.62512.103
5315.44711.807
5415.27711.526
5515.08011.240
5614.92410.896
5714.77010.693
5814.60310.488
5914.42810.264
6014.2239.971
6114.0989.679
6213.8959.468
6313.7069.270
6413.5559.029
6513.3848.841
6613.2298.651
6713.0618.473
6812.8928.242
6912.6938.006
7012.5347.836
7112.3517.606
7212.1967.422
7312.0407.206
7411.8927.015
7511.7156.803
7611.5086.615
7711.3076.411
7811.0906.223
7910.8726.044
8010.6395.810
8110.4115.591
8210.2505.384
8310.0855.150
849.8784.955
859.6824.786
869.4704.561
879.2454.329
888.9724.143
898.7173.921
908.4333.676
918.1573.448
927.8913.180
937.5612.897
947.2042.553
956.9502.308
966.5122.027
976.0341.619
985.4561.267
994.8050.857


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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