Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle


Return to catchment list
Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle



Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle ( Jun 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile8.6835.455
Median13.0219.721
Mean14.47613.254
75% Quartile18.86217.133
Interquartile Range10.17911.678

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
138.87958.134
235.42547.326
332.99643.326
430.99540.158
529.66637.888
628.63634.843
727.53032.785
826.79730.924
925.90429.127
1025.24427.816
1124.52826.755
1223.90525.610
1323.41724.760
1422.89823.924
1522.35923.023
1621.92822.322
1721.52721.518
1821.14020.715
1920.88220.023
2020.50419.487
2120.05718.976
2219.77518.416
2319.50118.030
2419.16517.476
2518.86517.133
2618.54316.841
2718.29016.401
2817.93216.056
2917.62415.661
3017.33615.231
3117.06014.844
3216.75314.456
3316.50414.154
3416.21713.859
3515.98113.459
3615.75513.144
3715.54012.833
3815.39212.547
3915.20012.314
4014.98612.012
4114.80511.723
4214.52711.511
4314.34611.333
4414.14311.092
4513.94310.877
4613.75810.639
4713.56510.425
4813.40510.149
4913.2109.942
5013.0219.721
5112.8329.522
5212.6139.324
5312.3909.096
5412.1968.879
5511.9768.662
5611.7928.401
5711.6028.249
5811.4188.096
5911.2807.929
6011.1027.713
6110.9697.499
6210.8327.344
6310.6007.201
6410.4307.027
6510.2566.892
6610.1146.755
679.9536.628
689.8166.464
699.6726.297
709.5076.177
719.3156.015
729.1615.885
738.9975.735
748.8415.601
758.6825.454
768.4865.324
778.3215.183
788.1315.053
797.9394.930
807.7384.769
817.5454.619
827.3974.477
837.2054.317
846.9914.184
856.7814.069
866.5673.915
876.3263.757
886.1383.631
895.9363.480
905.7293.312
915.5263.157
925.2852.974
934.9992.780
944.6102.545
954.2782.376
964.0062.182
973.6551.898
983.1151.651
992.6591.360


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence