Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle



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Probability distribution for Maragle Creek at Maragle ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.1350.764
Median0.3591.587
Mean0.5072.432
75% Quartile0.7093.060
Interquartile Range0.5742.297

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12.51314.651
22.04410.775
31.8209.475
41.6288.572
51.5147.896
61.4257.111
71.3506.585
81.2926.118
91.2185.686
101.1665.376
111.1145.131
121.0704.876
131.0204.687
140.9784.478
150.9464.292
160.9184.148
170.8983.960
180.8703.800
190.8413.657
200.8233.547
210.8003.438
220.7763.314
230.7563.244
240.7333.130
250.7103.061
260.6933.002
270.6752.910
280.6522.839
290.6292.761
300.6072.674
310.5902.597
320.5742.517
330.5622.457
340.5472.401
350.5332.320
360.5202.259
370.5082.197
380.4942.141
390.4812.094
400.4692.035
410.4541.978
420.4461.937
430.4361.901
440.4261.854
450.4161.813
460.4051.765
470.3931.725
480.3811.671
490.3711.630
500.3591.587
510.3471.548
520.3361.511
530.3261.465
540.3151.425
550.3041.380
560.2941.332
570.2851.302
580.2771.272
590.2691.240
600.2621.197
610.2551.157
620.2461.127
630.2351.100
640.2271.067
650.2191.041
660.2131.014
670.2050.990
680.1960.958
690.1870.926
700.1780.903
710.1670.872
720.1590.847
730.1500.818
740.1430.792
750.1350.764
760.1240.739
770.1150.712
780.1070.687
790.0980.663
800.0860.632
810.0760.603
820.0670.576
830.0590.545
840.0500.519
850.0420.497
860.0330.467
870.0220.437
880.0110.412
890.0000.383
900.0000.351
910.0000.321
920.0000.285
930.0000.248
940.0000.202
950.0000.169
960.0000.132
970.0000.076
980.0000.028
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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