Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr1.0450.4400.1250.48911.471
Apr-May2.4961.2810.1991.06125.983
Apr-Jun5.1243.0720.4642.01946.591

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.6689.854
205.0296.673
304.1355.162
403.3984.054
502.8253.279
602.3372.605
701.9352.091
801.5051.621
901.0371.134

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.54926.291
211.13919.245
39.93317.025
49.02315.390
58.50914.278
68.05612.859
77.60911.942
87.29011.140
96.94410.389
106.6689.854
116.4509.429
126.2948.977
136.0818.646
145.8888.325
155.7497.982
165.5917.718
175.4397.418
185.3157.122
195.1676.868
205.0296.673
214.9356.489
224.7966.287
234.6946.149
244.6095.952
254.5215.830
264.4195.727
274.3385.572
284.2805.451
294.2105.312
304.1355.162
314.0585.027
323.9754.893
333.8844.788
343.8154.687
353.7414.549
363.6614.441
373.6024.334
383.5244.237
393.4524.157
403.3984.054
413.3193.956
423.2613.884
433.2153.823
443.1473.742
453.0853.669
463.0343.588
472.9833.516
482.9273.423
492.8863.353
502.8253.279
512.7743.212
522.7183.145
532.6803.068
542.6392.996
552.5962.923
562.5352.835
572.4932.784
582.4402.733
592.3832.677
602.3372.605
612.3012.533
622.2592.481
632.2152.434
642.1732.375
652.1392.330
662.0812.285
672.0462.242
682.0052.187
691.9812.131
701.9352.091
711.8932.037
721.8521.994
731.8041.944
741.7561.899
751.7061.850
761.6691.807
771.6371.759
781.5901.716
791.5471.675
801.5051.621
811.4611.571
821.4071.524
831.3661.470
841.3051.426
851.2661.387
861.2271.336
871.1841.283
881.1391.240
891.0941.190
901.0371.134
910.9761.081
920.9171.020
930.8450.955
940.7670.875
950.6960.819
960.6120.753
970.4930.657
980.4020.573
990.2640.474


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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