Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1953) (GL)
Oct5.7804.0160.1352.15227.572
Oct-Nov9.0605.8840.2334.01038.230
Oct-Dec11.0916.5590.2335.12841.593

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.99023.468
207.55616.961
306.20313.357
405.13710.497
504.3658.398
603.6926.519
703.0805.063
802.4113.718
901.7322.320

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
118.81643.364
215.53436.707
313.68234.152
412.89432.082
512.27330.568
611.63528.494
711.07827.058
810.73125.735
910.32924.434
109.99023.468
119.72622.676
129.43921.809
139.07921.158
148.82820.512
158.53719.807
168.33019.253
178.13718.611
187.92617.965
197.74117.401
207.55616.961
217.39816.539
227.25216.073
237.07215.750
246.92315.283
256.78114.992
266.67414.744
276.55614.368
286.44414.071
296.30213.729
306.20313.357
316.06213.019
325.96312.678
335.84412.412
345.72012.151
355.62411.797
365.52711.516
375.43111.238
385.32310.981
395.21810.771
405.13710.497
415.04310.235
424.96210.042
434.8969.881
444.8099.661
454.7469.464
464.6599.246
474.5679.049
484.5058.794
494.4338.603
504.3658.398
514.2828.213
524.2228.030
534.1497.817
544.0817.615
554.0167.411
563.9477.167
573.8807.024
583.8276.880
593.7466.723
603.6926.519
613.6386.318
623.5796.172
633.5296.036
643.4725.871
653.4135.743
663.3405.613
673.2685.493
683.2065.336
693.1375.177
703.0805.063
713.0114.909
722.9464.785
732.8644.642
742.7954.514
752.7324.374
762.6744.249
772.6104.114
782.5343.990
792.4743.872
802.4113.718
812.3253.574
822.2723.438
832.1983.284
842.1423.156
852.0823.046
862.0112.898
871.9462.747
881.8792.625
891.7972.480
901.7322.320
911.6452.170
921.5461.995
931.4521.808
941.3251.582
951.2141.421
961.0851.234
970.9770.962
980.8390.726
990.5910.448


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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