Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1953) (GL)
Sep5.9627.8460.3893.6658.309
Sep-Oct11.74211.8610.5245.81735.881
Sep-Nov15.02213.7300.6227.67546.539

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1018.36829.548
2015.19122.966
3013.13018.906
4011.41415.389
5010.11412.609
608.8979.971
707.7597.836
806.4815.810
905.0193.676

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
129.06347.050
225.61041.420
323.95839.218
422.83137.411
521.83736.074
620.94234.215
719.99932.909
819.38931.687
918.85430.467
1018.36829.548
1117.98328.785
1217.63227.940
1317.26627.298
1416.90326.653
1516.52725.941
1616.19825.375
1715.90324.712
1815.62624.035
1915.36023.438
2015.19122.966
2114.96422.509
2214.72621.999
2314.49421.643
2414.29021.122
2514.11320.795
2613.91820.513
2713.74920.083
2813.52819.741
2913.31219.344
3013.13018.906
3112.92018.506
3212.72218.098
3312.55517.777
3412.36017.459
3512.21217.024
3612.05016.676
3711.89216.328
3811.73516.005
3911.59215.739
4011.41415.389
4111.25715.052
4211.13014.802
4311.02714.591
4410.89714.302
4510.79414.043
4610.66913.753
4710.52313.490
4810.38113.147
4910.27112.888
5010.11412.609
519.98112.356
529.87912.103
539.75211.807
549.63611.526
559.50311.240
569.39510.896
579.27910.693
589.13210.488
599.00410.264
608.8979.971
618.8019.679
628.6899.468
638.5519.270
648.4539.029
658.3608.841
668.2598.651
678.1128.473
687.9878.242
697.8878.006
707.7597.836
717.6587.606
727.5407.422
737.4017.206
747.2837.015
757.1636.803
767.0416.615
776.9216.411
786.7716.223
796.6296.044
806.4815.810
816.3465.591
826.1925.384
836.0675.150
845.9514.955
855.8054.786
865.6574.561
875.5384.329
885.3734.143
895.2153.921
905.0193.676
914.7963.448
924.5913.180
934.3822.897
944.1452.553
953.9102.308
963.6372.027
973.3841.619
982.9991.267
992.5700.857


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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