Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1953) (GL)
Oct5.8333.5304.3110.1351.69127.572
Oct-Nov9.1349.9307.7290.2333.15438.230
Oct-Dec11.20013.9848.9460.2334.15141.593

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.79323.468
2011.51216.961
309.54313.357
408.00310.497
506.7928.398
605.8506.519
704.8875.063
803.9003.718
902.8862.320

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
126.43243.364
222.37836.707
320.42734.152
419.15132.082
518.04830.568
617.36728.494
716.51627.058
815.89225.735
915.30924.434
1014.79323.468
1114.40822.676
1213.98721.809
1313.60921.158
1413.22420.512
1512.92519.807
1612.51419.253
1712.27718.611
1811.96717.965
1911.71717.401
2011.51216.961
2111.30916.539
2211.01616.073
2310.78115.750
2410.59415.283
2510.40314.992
2610.19614.744
279.98114.368
289.85014.071
299.72913.729
309.54313.357
319.36013.019
329.17612.678
339.01412.412
348.87512.151
358.72411.797
368.57611.516
378.40411.238
388.28310.981
398.15010.771
408.00310.497
417.84810.235
427.69310.042
437.5539.881
447.4479.661
457.3349.464
467.2439.246
477.1339.049
487.0198.794
496.9148.603
506.7928.398
516.6778.213
526.5948.030
536.4767.817
546.3867.615
556.3077.411
566.2217.167
576.1367.024
586.0276.880
595.9346.723
605.8506.519
615.7316.318
625.6286.172
635.5436.036
645.4475.871
655.3435.743
665.2605.613
675.1475.493
685.0455.336
694.9695.177
704.8875.063
714.7884.909
724.6984.785
734.6024.642
744.4994.514
754.4044.374
764.3094.249
774.2174.114
784.0693.990
793.9913.872
803.9003.718
813.7993.574
823.7113.438
833.6213.284
843.5033.156
853.4073.046
863.3162.898
873.2202.747
883.1192.625
893.0062.480
902.8862.320
912.7702.170
922.6131.995
932.4641.808
942.2841.582
952.1211.421
961.9481.234
971.7850.962
981.5780.726
991.1730.448


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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