Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jul4.5015.3573.0770.5281.78121.852
Jul-Aug10.80712.4189.9351.0794.98639.821
Jul-Sep16.73917.16317.7811.4688.23952.732

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1028.85732.703
2023.63825.341
3020.15220.805
4017.38416.890
5014.99713.820
6012.78210.940
7010.9038.646
808.6946.509
906.2374.315

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
143.69152.220
239.48145.950
336.90343.496
435.01141.481
533.82339.989
632.50837.915
731.10136.457
830.26735.093
929.54033.729
1028.85732.703
1128.30631.849
1227.54930.905
1326.93730.187
1426.48029.465
1525.82028.670
1625.35528.036
1724.91527.295
1824.51926.537
1924.03225.869
2023.63825.341
2123.22524.830
2222.96124.261
2322.56723.862
2422.13623.279
2521.82722.914
2621.55222.599
2721.26522.119
2820.85921.737
2920.54121.293
3020.15220.805
3119.83420.358
3219.52419.904
3319.20219.545
3418.92719.192
3518.61418.707
3618.37718.320
3718.13517.933
3817.87717.573
3917.63417.278
4017.38416.890
4117.08416.516
4216.83216.239
4316.65316.006
4416.48915.687
4516.26915.400
4616.02115.080
4715.79514.790
4815.54114.412
4915.22814.127
5014.99713.820
5114.82813.542
5214.56813.264
5314.32012.941
5414.10112.632
5513.89912.321
5613.62711.945
5713.41911.724
5813.17711.502
5912.96311.258
6012.78210.940
6112.63110.625
6212.38810.396
6312.19710.183
6412.0449.923
6511.8669.722
6611.6219.517
6711.4539.326
6811.2579.079
6911.0538.827
7010.9038.646
7110.7058.401
7210.5038.205
7310.2517.977
7410.0507.774
759.7837.551
769.5557.353
779.3367.138
789.1056.941
798.8556.753
808.6946.509
818.4966.281
828.2866.066
838.0545.823
847.7585.622
857.5245.448
867.2835.216
877.0724.979
886.7994.789
896.5194.563
906.2374.315
915.9694.084
925.6413.815
935.3323.532
944.9903.190
954.6152.948
964.1632.673
973.7772.275
983.0981.937
992.2951.547


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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