Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2003) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jan1.0090.024NA0.0130.1694.606
Jan-Feb1.7140.024NA0.0130.3596.140
Jan-Mar2.3990.089NA0.0270.47912.672

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.376
203.547
302.674
402.035
501.587
601.197
700.903
800.632
900.351

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114.651
210.775
39.475
48.572
57.896
67.111
76.585
86.118
95.686
105.376
115.131
124.876
134.687
144.478
154.292
164.148
173.960
183.800
193.657
203.547
213.438
223.314
233.244
243.130
253.061
263.002
272.910
282.839
292.761
302.674
312.597
322.517
332.457
342.401
352.320
362.259
372.197
382.141
392.094
402.035
411.978
421.937
431.901
441.854
451.813
461.765
471.725
481.671
491.630
501.587
511.548
521.511
531.465
541.425
551.380
561.332
571.302
581.272
591.240
601.197
611.157
621.127
631.100
641.067
651.041
661.014
670.990
680.958
690.926
700.903
710.872
720.847
730.818
740.792
750.764
760.739
770.712
780.687
790.663
800.632
810.603
820.576
830.545
840.519
850.497
860.467
870.437
880.412
890.383
900.351
910.321
920.285
930.248
940.202
950.169
960.132
970.076
980.028
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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