Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Historical and exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle ( Jan 2012 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2003) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jan1.009NA1.1570.0130.1424.606
Jan-Feb1.784NA2.7100.0130.8276.140
Jan-Mar2.483NA11.6590.0271.06012.672

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.2025.376
205.9073.547
305.0512.674
404.3812.035
503.8141.587
603.2741.197
702.8110.903
802.2730.632
901.6760.351

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
111.18814.651
210.21610.775
39.4599.475
48.8328.572
58.5717.896
68.2507.111
77.9206.585
87.6966.118
97.4165.686
107.2025.376
117.0155.131
126.8504.876
136.6994.687
146.5644.478
156.4304.292
166.3194.148
176.2143.960
186.1093.800
196.0013.657
205.9073.547
215.7993.438
225.7193.314
235.6153.244
245.5263.130
255.4263.061
265.3533.002
275.2792.910
285.1922.839
295.1242.761
305.0512.674
314.9732.597
324.8942.517
334.8532.457
344.7822.401
354.7112.320
364.6552.259
374.5892.197
384.5292.141
394.4552.094
404.3812.035
414.3281.978
424.2691.937
434.2031.901
444.1371.854
454.0871.813
464.0441.765
473.9821.725
483.9311.671
493.8781.630
503.8141.587
513.7581.548
523.7061.511
533.6591.465
543.5961.425
553.5481.380
563.5021.332
573.4461.302
583.4021.272
593.3321.240
603.2741.197
613.2391.157
623.1881.127
633.1401.100
643.0941.067
653.0471.041
663.0021.014
672.9610.990
682.9050.958
692.8650.926
702.8110.903
712.7630.872
722.7030.847
732.6570.818
742.5990.792
752.5490.764
762.5060.739
772.4590.712
782.3940.687
792.3340.663
802.2730.632
812.2270.603
822.1800.576
832.1080.545
842.0490.519
851.9870.497
861.9260.467
871.8650.437
881.7880.412
891.7340.383
901.6760.351
911.6030.321
921.5270.285
931.4470.248
941.3670.202
951.2650.169
961.1730.132
971.0370.076
980.8650.028
990.6920.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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