Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10351.491368.374
20310.202310.778
30279.771273.325
40254.217238.715
50231.276209.119
60208.573178.323
70184.466150.695
80158.014121.479
90124.18386.850

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1453.769514.799
2425.507468.155
3406.417449.842
4397.279434.763
5384.466423.575
6377.923407.968
7369.559396.951
8364.188386.605
9357.996376.223
10351.491368.374
11346.690361.822
12341.135354.542
13336.468348.982
14332.978343.373
15329.545337.162
16325.212332.194
17321.044326.349
18317.452320.343
19313.395315.011
20310.202310.778
21306.611306.659
22304.212302.041
23301.493298.790
24298.448294.017
25295.410291.005
26291.825288.397
27288.588284.402
28286.388281.208
29283.277277.470
30279.771273.325
31276.427269.503
32273.844265.590
33271.826262.478
34269.873259.390
35267.234255.120
36264.156251.677
37261.799248.216
38259.186244.964
39256.886242.275
40254.217238.715
41251.603235.245
42249.123232.656
43246.776230.462
44244.393227.431
45242.304224.687
46240.269221.593
47237.736218.767
48235.745215.047
49233.403212.210
50231.276209.119
51229.248206.294
52227.229203.446
53224.643200.089
54222.414196.852
55220.881193.540
56218.675189.488
57216.424187.074
58213.781184.620
59211.266181.909
60208.573178.323
61206.544174.713
62204.740172.058
63202.592169.562
64200.082166.476
65197.586164.058
66194.562161.572
67192.250159.236
68189.385156.170
69187.050152.995
70184.466150.695
71182.321147.528
72178.733144.974
73176.112141.956
74173.285139.240
75170.790136.209
76168.106133.481
77165.005130.488
78162.410127.705
79160.598125.021
80158.014121.479
81154.533118.122
82151.737114.904
83148.657111.222
84145.287108.114
85142.593105.402
86138.842101.724
87135.53597.901
88132.19694.800
89128.26291.051
90124.18386.850
91119.55182.896
92115.68378.190
93110.60973.127
94102.55666.898
9596.30762.391
9689.24857.157
9780.24449.433
9869.64642.691
9952.35934.718


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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