Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


Return to catchment list
Product list for Murray River at Biggara


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10102.064100.056
2085.47078.470
3075.02366.863
4067.27957.512
5060.30950.382
6054.46243.650
7048.34838.069
8041.58832.481
9034.14125.989

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1153.528184.476
2139.810151.873
3130.442140.699
4124.067132.113
5119.416126.079
6115.409118.114
7111.652112.791
8107.820108.008
9104.745103.407
10102.064100.056
1199.79097.340
1297.57794.405
1395.93892.222
1494.68090.068
1592.94687.740
1691.09085.919
1789.85283.822
1888.53881.719
1987.54179.893
2085.47078.470
2184.06377.109
2282.83975.609
2381.69674.569
2480.69473.066
2579.63972.132
2678.46371.332
2777.54370.122
2876.73569.168
2976.00068.067
3075.02366.863
3174.13765.770
3273.16364.667
3372.39363.802
3471.64662.953
3571.04161.795
3670.21660.875
3769.44159.961
3868.60059.113
3967.98658.420
4067.27957.512
4166.52256.637
4265.84355.992
4365.20555.450
4464.48854.708
4563.61354.042
4662.82953.300
4762.20052.628
4861.65251.754
4961.00851.094
5060.30950.382
5159.74049.738
5259.16149.094
5358.53048.343
5457.95647.625
5557.43246.899
5656.86346.020
5756.22545.501
5855.76844.977
5955.08144.403
6054.46243.650
6153.83642.899
6253.17642.351
6352.69341.840
6452.09941.212
6551.38340.723
6650.91240.223
6750.12539.756
6849.36239.147
6948.83938.520
7048.34838.069
7147.65237.451
7246.92636.955
7346.12236.372
7445.56235.849
7545.04835.269
7644.39934.749
7743.63634.180
7842.89433.654
7942.27833.147
8041.58832.481
8140.92131.851
8240.22631.248
8339.41030.560
8438.82129.979
8538.10129.473
8637.36928.785
8736.67828.070
8835.92427.488
8935.16626.783
9034.14125.989
9133.09125.237
9232.15924.335
9331.11923.353
9429.91322.124
9528.60021.217
9627.52020.141
9725.52518.498
9823.40816.992
9920.31415.095


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence