Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10145.523274.371
20123.428228.970
30108.100199.730
4095.968173.023
5086.458150.516
6077.895127.514
7068.289107.304
8058.15386.404
9045.75762.189

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1210.792390.787
2193.334353.627
3182.680339.049
4173.652327.055
5167.312318.160
6160.783305.762
7155.993297.017
8151.408288.812
9148.598280.585
10145.523274.371
11143.120269.188
12141.071263.433
13138.003259.042
14135.718254.615
15133.048249.717
16131.197245.804
17128.936241.203
18126.948236.480
19125.300232.292
20123.428228.970
21121.783225.741
22120.206222.124
23118.269219.580
24116.907215.849
25115.244213.496
26113.521211.462
27111.852208.347
28110.700205.859
29109.327202.951
30108.100199.730
31106.852196.763
32105.340193.730
33104.156191.321
34102.860188.934
35101.563185.637
36100.347182.983
3799.349180.317
3898.129177.817
3997.126175.752
4095.968173.023
4194.990170.366
4293.866168.387
4392.894166.712
4491.859164.401
4590.793162.311
4689.995159.959
4789.097157.814
4888.290154.996
4987.416152.849
5086.458150.516
5185.584148.387
5284.749146.244
5383.803143.723
5483.112141.298
5582.256138.821
5681.396135.798
5780.617134.002
5879.638132.178
5978.797130.167
6077.895127.514
6176.890124.849
6275.844122.893
6374.923121.059
6474.173118.795
6573.072117.026
6672.204115.209
6771.148113.506
6870.163111.275
6969.240108.971
7068.289107.304
7167.048105.016
7266.279103.173
7365.384101.002
7464.31299.053
7563.31896.881
7662.42294.932
7761.50892.798
7860.33290.818
7959.10988.913
8058.15386.404
8156.94184.033
8255.90581.765
8354.74779.176
8453.71576.996
8552.48275.097
8651.28572.528
8749.85769.863
8848.56767.705
8946.96165.102
9045.75762.189
9144.01759.452
9242.13756.199
9340.11852.704
9437.92148.406
9535.47845.295
9632.90841.680
9728.40236.333
9824.10331.644
9917.00726.059


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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