Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1083.10874.388
2070.87558.765
3062.55050.312
4055.62143.470
5050.01638.232
6045.31833.265
7040.23029.130
8034.88124.971
9028.30520.113

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1121.911134.636
2110.052111.501
3102.750103.537
498.62697.404
594.87393.087
692.01687.377
789.84383.556
887.49780.116
985.08476.804
1083.10874.388
1181.40872.428
1279.90470.309
1378.46768.731
1477.22967.174
1576.08365.488
1675.01664.170
1773.98262.650
1873.07461.124
1971.90259.799
2070.87558.765
2169.97657.776
2269.16656.685
2368.06355.929
2467.09254.835
2566.42454.155
2665.60753.572
2764.93352.690
2864.07351.994
2963.29351.191
3062.55050.312
3161.77149.514
3260.93148.709
3360.05548.076
3459.37447.456
3558.88046.608
3658.17045.935
3757.46445.266
3856.85344.645
3956.30244.136
4055.62143.470
4155.02542.829
4254.37242.356
4353.74441.958
4453.14941.413
4552.60940.924
4652.06540.378
4751.56239.884
4851.05939.241
4950.44838.756
5050.01638.232
5149.54437.757
5249.10737.283
5348.60136.729
5448.18736.200
5547.69935.665
5647.25835.016
5746.70234.633
5846.33534.246
5945.85133.821
6045.31833.265
6144.81532.709
6244.38832.304
6344.05131.925
6443.53331.460
6542.95831.098
6642.42130.728
6741.93630.382
6841.33329.930
6940.77029.465
7040.23029.130
7139.63028.671
7239.08828.302
7338.55327.869
7438.09527.480
7537.71427.049
7637.19126.662
7736.72026.238
7836.22625.846
7935.53925.468
8034.88124.971
8134.35524.501
8233.79724.051
8333.14723.537
8432.51823.103
8531.90122.724
8631.23922.210
8730.49321.674
8829.89521.238
8929.06120.709
9028.30520.113
9127.60219.549
9226.65318.870
9325.88318.131
9424.97317.204
9523.73616.520
9622.33015.706
9720.66214.461
9819.06513.317
9916.34111.872


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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