Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara



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Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10170.243161.717
20140.932125.008
30122.641105.507
40109.53489.941
5098.78878.174
6088.19867.152
7078.00558.091
8067.17149.098
9054.85338.768

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1261.170309.206
2237.670251.635
3219.135232.063
4207.771217.088
5200.930206.598
6191.821192.797
7185.664183.604
8179.577175.365
9175.634167.461
10170.243161.717
11165.927157.069
12162.136152.057
13159.248148.333
14155.747144.666
15152.306140.707
16149.812137.615
17147.886134.060
18145.389130.498
19142.834127.410
20140.932125.008
21138.935122.712
22136.469120.184
23134.719118.434
24132.671115.906
25130.722114.336
26128.727112.994
27127.028110.964
28125.555109.365
29124.046107.520
30122.641105.507
31120.826103.681
32119.667101.840
33118.232100.397
34116.74198.982
35115.56697.054
36114.42395.524
37113.34094.005
38112.02992.597
39110.69891.447
40109.53489.941
41108.34588.493
42107.13387.426
43105.91086.529
44105.02685.302
45103.86084.203
46102.80682.978
47101.60481.870
48100.53780.430
4999.72179.344
5098.78878.174
5197.81677.115
5296.80276.058
5395.83874.825
5494.82073.649
5593.85672.459
5692.76871.021
5791.63770.173
5890.46969.317
5989.27568.380
6088.19867.152
6187.14965.929
6285.94065.037
6384.95164.205
6484.15963.184
6583.19662.391
6682.08561.580
6781.08360.823
6880.02359.836
6979.14058.821
7078.00558.091
7176.96057.092
7276.07356.291
7375.00355.351
7474.24354.509
7573.27753.574
7672.06552.738
7770.78851.824
7869.36650.978
7968.29450.166
8067.17149.098
8166.12248.090
8265.05247.127
8363.75846.027
8462.52145.101
8561.42944.294
8660.26543.200
8759.21442.064
8857.96041.141
8956.26440.024
9054.85338.768
9153.16537.580
9251.96636.158
9349.72934.614
9447.98432.687
9545.77131.269
9643.42529.592
9740.45827.040
9837.11724.713
9931.75921.800


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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