Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara



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Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara ( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10325.443330.128
20290.500270.192
30263.566233.024
40243.053200.314
50223.589173.769
60203.594147.614
70181.971125.378
80159.365102.935
90127.03877.208

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1429.427490.729
2402.259438.812
3383.641418.569
4370.283401.981
5361.145389.726
6351.723372.718
7343.129360.779
8337.117349.627
9330.614338.497
10325.443330.128
11320.248323.174
12317.374315.483
13313.678309.636
14309.462303.763
15305.827297.291
16302.590292.138
17298.990286.104
18296.426279.938
19293.868274.493
20290.500270.192
21287.616266.025
22284.972261.375
23282.262258.116
24279.237253.353
25276.553250.360
26273.725247.779
27270.880243.840
28268.961240.705
29266.143237.053
30263.566233.024
31261.093229.329
32259.351225.567
33256.703222.590
34254.454219.650
35252.780215.605
36250.891212.364
37248.935209.122
38247.235206.092
39245.132203.599
40243.053200.314
41241.171197.131
42239.369194.769
43237.025192.775
44234.710190.032
45233.030187.561
46230.951184.790
47229.053182.271
48227.370178.975
49225.303176.476
50223.589173.769
51221.529171.306
52219.441168.838
53217.546165.944
54215.760163.171
55213.942160.351
56211.788156.924
57209.598154.894
58207.427152.841
59205.425150.583
60203.594147.614
61201.663144.645
62199.606142.474
63197.450140.443
64195.610137.944
65193.184135.996
66190.635134.002
67188.429132.136
68186.242129.699
69184.105127.189
70181.971125.378
71179.454122.898
72177.575120.906
73175.174118.563
74173.105116.464
75171.150114.131
76168.231112.041
77166.041109.757
78163.573107.641
79161.608105.608
80159.365102.935
81156.197100.412
82153.28198.002
83150.03595.252
84147.37892.939
85145.19190.924
86142.05388.198
87138.14385.369
88135.09683.078
89131.45780.310
90127.03877.208
91121.86774.287
92117.12170.804
93111.60067.045
94104.12662.394
9598.45859.001
9691.79455.027
9784.63449.067
9871.15343.742
9955.48637.243


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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