Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara



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Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara ( Jan 2010 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1046.29773.720
2039.76759.982
3035.61951.852
4032.45244.929
5029.61639.443
6027.05934.120
7024.40129.622
8021.70325.066
9018.16619.747

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
165.792113.795
260.908100.420
357.36195.299
454.09291.148
552.12788.110
650.73983.936
749.53381.037
848.42578.353
947.24575.699
1046.29773.720
1145.34672.087
1244.41470.292
1343.77268.936
1443.10167.582
1542.40466.097
1641.89664.922
1741.24363.553
1840.78262.162
1940.26260.942
2039.76759.982
2139.22259.055
2238.70758.026
2338.26457.308
2437.86756.262
2537.55255.607
2637.10555.044
2736.71854.188
2836.39553.508
2935.97152.720
3035.61951.852
3135.32351.060
3234.93350.256
3334.59549.622
3434.28248.997
3533.93848.140
3633.65347.456
3733.37146.774
3833.06646.138
3932.72945.615
4032.45244.929
4132.07344.265
4231.79043.774
4331.56943.360
4431.34842.792
4531.07142.280
4630.75941.708
4730.44741.189
4830.14340.511
4929.91539.998
5029.61639.443
5129.34738.939
5229.11038.434
5328.76137.844
5428.53337.278
5528.32536.704
5628.07536.008
5727.80835.596
5827.56135.179
5927.32534.721
6027.05934.120
6126.84833.518
6226.64833.079
6326.39132.668
6426.10332.163
6525.79931.769
6625.52731.366
6725.29530.989
6825.00330.496
6924.73129.988
7024.40129.622
7124.21029.120
7223.96828.717
7323.72728.243
7423.48327.818
7523.20427.344
7622.94126.920
7722.71226.456
7822.35926.026
7922.01425.612
8021.70325.066
8121.37324.551
8221.05324.057
8320.73323.493
8420.40323.017
8520.11422.602
8619.69622.039
8719.35621.452
8818.98920.975
8918.58720.397
9018.16619.747
9117.75919.131
9217.27318.392
9316.76917.590
9416.30416.587
9515.70015.849
9614.88914.975
9713.95213.645
9812.60212.433
9911.14210.918


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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