Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara



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Exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara ( Jan 2012 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1082.83573.720
2072.74559.982
3066.40851.852
4060.90144.929
5056.07239.443
6052.00734.120
7047.56529.622
8042.78725.066
9036.50419.747

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1115.649113.795
2105.517100.420
3100.31295.299
495.41291.148
592.92488.110
690.32783.936
788.51181.037
886.08878.353
984.43575.699
1082.83573.720
1181.43872.087
1280.50970.292
1379.28668.936
1478.24167.582
1577.30966.097
1676.46964.922
1775.40563.553
1874.58262.162
1973.81360.942
2072.74559.982
2171.97459.055
2271.14758.026
2370.54757.308
2469.95656.262
2569.27155.607
2668.64955.044
2768.12254.188
2867.45953.508
2966.98552.720
3066.40851.852
3165.78951.060
3265.29250.256
3364.80249.622
3464.16748.997
3563.62248.140
3663.15447.456
3762.54546.774
3861.89446.138
3961.35745.615
4060.90144.929
4160.38544.265
4259.91243.774
4359.38943.360
4458.97842.792
4558.55042.280
4658.05241.708
4757.53741.189
4857.11140.511
4956.60339.998
5056.07239.443
5155.65338.939
5255.21138.434
5354.81937.844
5454.40337.278
5553.97036.704
5653.63336.008
5753.20535.596
5852.83835.179
5952.40634.721
6052.00734.120
6151.47333.518
6251.13833.079
6350.64632.668
6450.09832.163
6549.62431.769
6649.23331.366
6748.84430.989
6848.46430.496
6948.07629.988
7047.56529.622
7147.10629.120
7246.67628.717
7346.27228.243
7445.90227.818
7545.47527.344
7645.00526.920
7744.47526.456
7843.96326.026
7943.29625.612
8042.78725.066
8142.17924.551
8241.56324.057
8340.91923.493
8440.25123.017
8539.72422.602
8639.19022.039
8738.63021.452
8837.99420.975
8937.23720.397
9036.50419.747
9135.73819.131
9234.99518.392
9333.99317.590
9433.21116.587
9532.22715.849
9630.93414.975
9729.03613.645
9826.48812.433
9924.15110.918


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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