Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile143.480124.932
Median185.115193.554
Mean193.840202.762
75% Quartile235.758269.248
Interquartile Range92.278144.316

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1389.993473.627
2366.573431.126
3349.538414.433
4336.037400.686
5325.135390.484
6317.279376.247
7306.630366.194
8299.670356.751
9294.430347.270
10288.873340.101
11283.785334.114
12279.716327.460
13274.290322.376
14271.159317.246
15267.864311.564
16264.423307.017
17261.768301.665
18257.857296.164
19254.591291.278
20251.911287.397
21248.133283.620
22244.897279.383
23241.833276.399
24238.746272.016
25235.793269.249
26233.401266.853
27231.271263.181
28228.218260.244
29225.947256.805
30223.184252.990
31220.907249.469
32218.625245.864
33216.170242.995
34214.259240.147
35212.431236.206
36210.768233.027
37208.870229.829
38207.020226.822
39205.385224.335
40203.452221.040
41201.372217.826
42199.403215.427
43197.714213.393
44195.759210.581
45193.779208.034
46191.714205.160
47189.608202.533
48188.212199.074
49186.660196.432
50185.115193.554
51183.705190.920
52181.737188.264
53180.234185.129
54178.472182.105
55177.196179.008
56175.405175.214
57173.605172.952
58171.909170.652
59170.511168.108
60168.580164.741
61166.706161.347
62165.042158.848
63163.098156.498
64161.180153.590
65159.207151.309
66157.723148.962
67156.013146.756
68154.557143.858
69152.818140.854
70151.374138.676
71149.755135.675
72148.275133.253
73146.577130.389
74145.117127.809
75143.451124.928
76141.681122.334
77138.955119.485
78136.955116.834
79135.084114.277
80133.065110.899
81130.859107.697
82129.080104.625
83126.609101.109
84124.55998.140
85122.18395.550
86120.31092.036
87118.01688.384
88115.37685.423
89112.77581.845
90109.34777.838
91106.07374.071
92103.71069.593
93100.28064.787
9496.96658.893
9592.27854.644
9687.81849.732
9780.20742.533
9872.86636.311
9961.95129.047


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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