Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile127.56796.885
Median162.453150.516
Mean167.122160.861
75% Quartile200.811213.495
Interquartile Range73.244116.611

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1324.668390.787
2301.459353.627
3284.646339.049
4273.919327.055
5265.704318.160
6259.044305.762
7253.155297.017
8249.403288.812
9245.182280.585
10242.420274.371
11238.871269.188
12234.920263.433
13231.032259.042
14227.766254.615
15224.428249.717
16221.800245.804
17218.725241.203
18216.323236.480
19213.917232.292
20211.685228.970
21209.550225.741
22207.105222.124
23204.853219.580
24202.908215.849
25200.833213.496
26199.256211.462
27197.482208.347
28195.519205.859
29193.302202.951
30191.722199.730
31189.702196.763
32188.025193.730
33186.686191.321
34184.987188.934
35183.434185.637
36181.841182.983
37180.205180.317
38179.087177.817
39177.767175.752
40176.455173.023
41174.953170.366
42173.644168.387
43172.260166.712
44170.560164.401
45169.093162.311
46167.648159.959
47166.425157.814
48164.963154.996
49163.840152.849
50162.453150.516
51161.155148.387
52159.707146.244
53158.438143.723
54156.886141.298
55155.309138.821
56153.850135.798
57152.595134.002
58151.461132.178
59150.445130.167
60149.008127.514
61147.857124.849
62146.435122.893
63145.046121.059
64143.675118.795
65142.175117.026
66140.339115.209
67138.995113.506
68137.663111.275
69136.297108.971
70134.688107.304
71133.431105.016
72131.855103.173
73130.671101.002
74129.12699.053
75127.55896.881
76126.11294.932
77124.21092.798
78122.70490.818
79121.18188.913
80119.28486.404
81117.61684.033
82115.79881.765
83113.72479.176
84111.75276.996
85109.60775.097
86108.07072.528
87106.09969.863
88104.06567.705
89101.83165.102
9099.75662.189
9197.40359.452
9294.49056.199
9391.97452.704
9487.68848.406
9584.34745.295
9680.76341.680
9773.86836.333
9867.55831.644
9956.54426.059


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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