Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile68.25058.703
Median91.79691.658
Mean97.042100.837
75% Quartile121.168133.634
Interquartile Range52.91874.931

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1214.304261.673
2193.032234.310
3183.208223.615
4176.411214.836
5170.991208.341
6165.131199.312
7161.166192.962
8156.224187.022
9153.430181.084
10150.274176.612
11147.681172.892
12145.429168.772
13143.145165.636
14140.835162.483
15139.065159.004
16136.648156.231
17134.323152.980
18132.950149.653
19130.990146.712
20129.135144.386
21127.327142.132
22126.047139.612
23124.390137.845
24122.749135.260
25121.179133.635
26119.628132.232
27118.278130.089
28116.837128.382
29115.422126.393
30114.001124.196
31112.753122.179
32111.491120.124
33110.223118.496
34108.863116.887
35107.814114.673
36106.523112.897
37105.089111.119
38103.989109.456
39102.855108.087
40101.652106.283
41100.617104.533
4299.548103.234
4398.672102.137
4497.761100.627
4596.80899.265
4695.77497.738
4794.59896.350
4893.57994.532
4992.82293.153
5091.79691.658
5190.81790.298
5290.07988.935
5388.92687.336
5487.96485.803
5587.02884.244
5686.26382.349
5785.16081.226
5884.45980.090
5983.39378.842
6082.61677.199
6181.87775.557
6281.06274.355
6380.03773.232
6478.91671.850
6578.15870.773
6677.25169.670
6776.15368.638
6875.11967.291
6974.04965.904
7073.30464.904
7172.37063.535
7271.21062.435
7370.31161.143
7469.40259.986
7568.24458.700
7666.99857.550
7766.10756.293
7865.07355.129
7963.88754.012
8062.71252.545
8161.61051.162
8260.33549.841
8359.04548.338
8457.89247.074
8557.02745.975
8655.69844.490
8754.13242.952
8852.65941.708
8951.15340.209
9049.64338.533
9147.82836.958
9246.48435.086
9344.60633.073
9442.19030.594
9540.18028.795
9637.89426.697
9734.43123.574
9830.18020.811
9924.07717.476


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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