Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile49.26738.856
Median61.39658.030
Mean64.06167.455
75% Quartile75.79185.109
Interquartile Range26.52546.253

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1125.213219.905
2115.724181.399
3110.729168.108
4106.446157.858
5103.107150.635
6100.244141.072
797.614134.662
895.355128.889
993.306123.323
1091.520119.261
1189.787115.964
1288.339112.396
1387.352109.737
1486.209107.112
1585.018104.270
1684.003102.044
1782.84399.479
1881.80596.901
1980.70494.661
2079.87992.914
2178.98691.241
2278.20089.396
2377.34288.115
2476.44786.262
2575.79385.110
2675.01584.122
2774.22582.628
2873.55081.448
2972.98780.085
3072.34478.595
3171.77777.240
3271.12475.872
3370.48274.797
3469.98073.743
3569.39772.303
3668.73871.157
3768.23770.019
3867.67168.962
3966.92468.097
4066.42666.963
4165.88265.871
4265.46865.065
4365.00464.387
4464.46563.457
4563.97862.624
4663.39161.693
4762.94860.850
4862.40559.753
4961.93058.924
5061.39658.030
5160.92757.219
5260.47956.409
5359.95855.462
5459.43354.558
5558.94053.641
5658.52652.531
5758.16451.875
5857.84651.213
5957.39150.486
6056.99949.532
6156.44848.580
6256.00347.885
6355.43147.236
6454.98046.438
6554.35945.817
6653.85345.181
6753.30144.587
6852.85543.811
6952.34643.012
7051.84142.436
7151.30141.646
7250.76341.013
7350.27840.267
7449.77239.599
7549.26238.855
7648.68038.189
7748.22137.460
7847.70436.783
7947.06836.132
8046.50435.275
8145.88534.464
8245.35733.688
8344.82732.799
8444.17632.049
8543.55531.394
8642.57630.505
8741.86729.578
8841.02428.823
8940.44127.907
9039.51026.874
9138.57225.894
9237.69724.716
9336.85123.431
9436.00521.820
9534.83320.628
9633.61419.211
9732.01317.036
9829.68315.036
9926.51212.502


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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