Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile33.54327.345
Median41.89839.443
Mean43.96143.706
75% Quartile52.16655.607
Interquartile Range18.62428.262

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
190.418113.795
281.762100.420
376.75095.299
473.49891.148
571.16188.110
669.36683.936
767.73481.037
866.18178.353
964.55575.699
1063.27973.720
1162.26072.087
1261.25770.292
1360.37168.936
1459.61467.582
1558.58866.097
1657.76364.922
1757.13163.553
1856.48062.162
1955.87560.942
2055.10259.982
2154.50459.055
2253.94158.026
2353.42457.308
2452.78056.262
2552.17555.607
2651.65955.044
2751.18754.188
2850.69653.508
2950.34552.720
3049.94151.852
3149.59951.060
3249.18450.256
3348.75149.622
3448.29948.997
3547.79848.140
3647.32447.456
3746.91446.774
3846.49346.138
3946.09345.615
4045.68144.929
4145.18544.265
4244.90843.774
4344.39043.360
4444.07642.792
4543.74942.280
4643.39241.708
4742.96841.189
4842.53540.511
4942.17239.998
5041.89839.443
5141.56438.939
5241.18838.434
5340.81237.844
5440.49837.278
5540.22136.704
5639.91836.008
5739.57635.596
5839.31235.179
5938.96134.721
6038.66234.120
6138.23933.518
6237.94733.079
6337.51632.668
6437.17432.163
6536.80031.769
6636.43631.366
6736.11330.989
6835.76030.496
6935.42029.988
7035.13029.622
7134.86929.120
7234.51628.717
7334.12628.243
7433.76727.818
7533.53127.344
7632.94726.920
7732.58926.456
7832.24926.026
7931.91625.612
8031.42825.066
8130.94124.551
8230.53224.057
8330.08723.493
8429.58423.017
8529.14822.602
8628.62122.039
8728.13821.452
8827.67920.975
8927.16720.397
9026.66819.747
9126.12919.131
9225.53318.392
9324.84817.590
9424.14716.587
9523.36015.849
9622.27114.975
9720.85213.645
9818.92912.433
9917.13010.918


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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