Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile29.11424.515
Median37.69134.858
Mean38.91138.103
75% Quartile47.47848.305
Interquartile Range18.36423.790

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
176.51894.521
271.24184.083
368.09480.066
465.73276.801
563.07874.405
661.51771.103
759.96568.804
858.89866.669
957.96864.553
1056.89662.971
1155.86861.662
1255.04960.221
1354.45459.131
1453.88758.040
1553.25956.842
1652.56055.892
1751.83354.783
1851.23853.655
1950.65152.662
2050.04251.881
2149.38351.126
2248.80650.285
2348.31149.698
2447.96548.842
2547.47948.305
2647.09347.843
2746.69247.139
2846.25746.580
2945.77245.931
3045.29745.216
3144.86044.561
3244.45743.896
3344.03043.371
3443.74342.853
3543.26842.142
3642.89541.573
3742.54741.005
3842.24040.475
3941.80840.040
4041.41339.466
4141.12338.912
4240.75138.500
4340.33338.154
4439.92937.677
4539.51537.248
4639.19536.767
4738.78536.330
4838.40735.759
4938.06635.327
5037.69134.858
5137.42734.432
5237.16034.006
5336.79033.506
5436.42233.026
5536.11732.539
5635.80031.947
5735.46431.597
5835.09131.242
5934.77930.852
6034.44630.339
6134.16629.825
6233.84029.449
6333.47829.098
6433.20828.665
6532.82828.327
6632.48327.981
6732.02827.657
6831.67927.234
6931.37226.797
7031.00826.482
7130.58326.049
7230.20625.701
7329.72925.291
7429.40324.924
7529.11324.514
7628.74724.147
7728.25523.744
7827.90423.371
7927.50023.011
8027.02822.537
8126.67322.088
8226.23121.658
8325.69021.166
8425.28620.750
8524.77020.387
8624.24019.894
8723.60319.380
8823.18218.961
8922.60118.454
9022.04217.881
9121.38717.339
9220.70016.688
9319.89015.978
9419.23815.091
9518.21014.436
9617.03013.659
9715.59312.474
9814.15011.391
9911.64310.032


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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