Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile75.85953.576
Median102.04378.174
Mean110.54192.144
75% Quartile134.822114.336
Interquartile Range58.96360.760

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1263.752309.206
2241.195251.635
3223.155232.063
4214.692217.088
5205.443206.598
6196.877192.797
7190.735183.604
8185.471175.365
9179.906167.461
10174.604161.717
11170.371157.069
12166.276152.057
13163.350148.333
14160.473144.666
15157.627140.707
16154.777137.615
17151.894134.060
18149.762130.498
19147.441127.410
20145.425125.008
21143.099122.712
22140.978120.184
23138.840118.434
24136.464115.906
25134.826114.336
26133.277112.994
27131.558110.964
28129.504109.365
29127.340107.520
30126.035105.507
31124.563103.681
32123.439101.840
33121.783100.397
34120.70398.982
35119.44397.054
36118.00895.524
37116.70894.005
38115.28492.597
39113.88791.447
40112.86489.941
41111.60688.493
42110.52287.426
43109.58186.529
44108.52985.302
45107.58984.203
46106.66182.978
47105.54981.870
48104.20880.430
49103.17079.344
50102.04378.174
51101.11477.115
52100.01176.058
5398.99474.825
5497.92373.649
5596.78372.459
5695.81771.021
5794.90670.173
5893.95569.317
5992.78368.380
6091.84867.152
6190.67665.929
6289.62865.037
6388.52064.205
6487.18063.184
6586.19562.391
6685.13761.580
6783.92760.823
6882.93159.836
6981.92158.821
7080.59858.091
7179.65457.092
7278.57056.291
7377.55755.351
7476.61854.509
7575.85853.574
7675.07252.738
7773.92651.824
7872.76150.978
7971.68250.166
8070.16949.098
8169.01348.090
8267.70847.127
8366.59746.027
8464.97545.101
8563.99744.294
8662.75643.200
8761.39642.064
8860.13841.141
8958.80340.024
9056.92838.768
9155.20537.580
9253.53036.158
9351.71734.614
9449.66132.687
9547.46631.269
9644.98229.592
9741.78327.040
9838.73624.713
9933.94221.800


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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