Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile225.962114.135
Median281.490173.769
Mean284.325191.030
75% Quartile339.239250.359
Interquartile Range113.277136.224

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1512.156490.729
2477.289438.812
3457.127418.569
4435.470401.981
5424.632389.726
6416.967372.718
7409.616360.779
8404.412349.627
9395.443338.497
10391.335330.128
11386.431323.174
12381.425315.483
13375.625309.636
14371.893303.763
15369.240297.291
16365.802292.138
17363.156286.104
18359.655279.938
19356.233274.493
20352.887270.192
21350.428266.025
22347.185261.375
23344.711258.116
24342.008253.353
25339.266250.360
26336.372247.779
27333.782243.840
28331.395240.705
29328.190237.053
30325.676233.024
31323.412229.329
32321.389225.567
33319.260222.590
34316.662219.650
35314.226215.605
36311.932212.364
37309.481209.122
38306.976206.092
39304.882203.599
40302.849200.314
41301.103197.131
42299.131194.769
43297.317192.775
44294.719190.032
45291.944187.561
46289.893184.790
47288.256182.271
48285.709178.975
49283.772176.476
50281.490173.769
51279.447171.306
52277.489168.838
53275.444165.944
54273.979163.171
55272.193160.351
56269.952156.924
57267.813154.894
58265.711152.841
59263.872150.583
60261.947147.614
61260.198144.645
62257.924142.474
63255.613140.443
64254.046137.944
65251.785135.996
66249.384134.002
67247.064132.136
68244.681129.699
69241.829127.189
70239.168125.378
71236.269122.898
72234.075120.906
73231.811118.563
74228.524116.464
75225.942114.131
76223.964112.041
77221.205109.757
78218.256107.641
79215.797105.608
80212.363102.935
81209.810100.412
82207.23398.002
83203.49395.252
84200.64492.939
85197.04490.924
86192.85688.198
87189.09585.369
88184.48083.078
89180.87380.310
90175.93077.208
91171.30374.287
92165.86770.804
93160.15167.045
94153.75662.394
95148.16859.001
96139.52555.027
97128.86649.067
98115.36243.742
9996.39937.243


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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