Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara


Return to catchment list
Product list for Murray River at Biggara


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile212.850136.213
Median276.366209.119
Mean278.979220.040
75% Quartile341.007291.003
Interquartile Range128.157154.790

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1512.908514.799
2478.299468.155
3460.746449.842
4446.702434.763
5435.953423.575
6427.367407.968
7419.137396.951
8412.236386.605
9406.998376.223
10400.501368.374
11394.591361.822
12389.870354.542
13384.559348.982
14380.941343.373
15376.729337.162
16372.377332.194
17368.984326.349
18364.799320.343
19361.487315.011
20357.710310.778
21353.633306.659
22350.356302.041
23347.353298.790
24343.742294.017
25341.020291.005
26338.208288.397
27335.537284.402
28332.112281.208
29329.636277.470
30326.389273.325
31323.287269.503
32320.228265.590
33317.362262.478
34314.770259.390
35312.416255.120
36309.605251.677
37306.761248.216
38304.522244.964
39302.201242.275
40299.502238.715
41297.820235.245
42294.711232.656
43291.852230.462
44289.391227.431
45287.355224.687
46284.943221.593
47283.046218.767
48280.754215.047
49278.451212.210
50276.366209.119
51273.435206.294
52271.489203.446
53268.585200.089
54265.814196.852
55263.318193.540
56260.915189.488
57259.046187.074
58257.091184.620
59254.899181.909
60253.163178.323
61250.783174.713
62248.420172.058
63245.852169.562
64242.646166.476
65240.166164.058
66237.379161.572
67235.124159.236
68231.639156.170
69229.387152.995
70226.622150.695
71223.319147.528
72220.801144.974
73218.367141.956
74215.925139.240
75212.828136.209
76209.756133.481
77206.859130.488
78203.472127.705
79200.479125.021
80197.590121.479
81194.347118.122
82191.114114.904
83188.033111.222
84184.976108.114
85181.662105.402
86177.861101.724
87174.41797.901
88168.61894.800
89164.09591.051
90160.75586.850
91155.19182.896
92148.87978.190
93142.90673.127
94136.80866.898
95130.74262.391
96121.33557.157
97109.00349.433
9899.08142.691
9981.52834.718


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence