Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara


Return to catchment list
Product list for Murray River at Biggara


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile185.379124.932
Median232.894193.554
Mean240.536202.762
75% Quartile288.142269.248
Interquartile Range102.763144.316

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1452.769473.627
2424.978431.126
3406.903414.433
4395.840400.686
5384.573390.484
6374.205376.247
7363.777366.194
8355.713356.751
9349.356347.270
10343.990340.101
11338.425334.114
12332.930327.460
13328.067322.376
14324.184317.246
15319.948311.564
16316.632307.017
17313.918301.665
18310.179296.164
19306.990291.278
20303.595287.397
21299.630283.620
22296.578279.383
23293.329276.399
24290.468272.016
25288.142269.249
26285.579266.853
27282.791263.181
28280.587260.244
29277.987256.805
30275.151252.990
31272.175249.469
32269.358245.864
33267.253242.995
34264.379240.147
35262.598236.206
36260.253233.027
37258.461229.829
38255.995226.822
39253.985224.335
40252.344221.040
41250.107217.826
42247.855215.427
43246.023213.393
44244.421210.581
45242.277208.034
46240.453205.160
47238.408202.533
48236.691199.074
49234.607196.432
50232.894193.554
51231.191190.920
52229.210188.264
53227.254185.129
54225.312182.105
55223.740179.008
56221.826175.214
57219.730172.952
58217.495170.652
59215.682168.108
60213.981164.741
61212.220161.347
62210.267158.848
63208.625156.498
64207.099153.590
65205.297151.309
66203.128148.962
67200.959146.756
68198.978143.858
69196.887140.854
70194.908138.676
71193.256135.675
72191.254133.253
73189.134130.389
74187.066127.809
75185.378124.928
76183.327122.334
77180.419119.485
78178.357116.834
79176.226114.277
80173.802110.899
81171.495107.697
82168.980104.625
83166.068101.109
84163.86598.140
85160.14495.550
86157.87392.036
87154.75288.384
88152.17585.423
89148.94281.845
90145.41277.838
91142.43974.071
92139.25269.593
93135.63064.787
94131.23958.893
95127.26154.644
96121.34549.732
97112.05742.533
98103.91536.311
9988.21129.047


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence