Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Probability distribution for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile38.65938.856
Median48.50758.030
Mean51.05567.455
75% Quartile60.89985.109
Interquartile Range22.24046.253

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1105.038219.905
296.454181.399
391.663168.108
488.083157.858
584.843150.635
682.470141.072
780.210134.662
878.088128.889
976.086123.323
1074.427119.261
1173.193115.964
1272.127112.396
1370.964109.737
1469.948107.112
1569.006104.270
1667.814102.044
1766.91599.479
1866.02896.901
1965.28194.661
2064.56792.914
2163.61491.241
2262.92489.396
2362.17888.115
2461.50886.262
2560.90285.110
2660.39484.122
2759.71282.628
2859.00481.448
2958.49280.085
3058.01878.595
3157.50777.240
3256.90275.872
3356.28574.797
3455.76373.743
3555.19272.303
3654.75071.157
3754.31270.019
3853.81068.962
3953.31768.097
4052.82666.963
4152.28965.871
4251.93165.065
4351.54664.387
4451.15763.457
4550.70662.624
4650.31161.693
4749.88760.850
4849.45859.753
4949.02958.924
5048.50758.030
5148.05057.219
5247.63756.409
5347.26855.462
5446.83754.558
5546.36253.641
5645.92952.531
5745.59151.875
5845.17551.213
5944.82750.486
6044.43149.532
6144.13048.580
6243.78647.885
6343.41447.236
6442.95346.438
6542.54445.817
6642.17345.181
6741.69244.587
6841.21043.811
6940.82043.012
7040.47142.436
7140.12041.646
7239.72041.013
7339.38340.267
7439.04639.599
7538.64638.855
7638.16838.189
7737.60637.460
7837.04536.783
7936.52236.132
8036.00835.275
8135.55034.464
8235.06533.688
8334.57432.799
8434.04332.049
8533.49731.394
8632.89230.505
8732.34829.578
8831.74328.823
8931.15827.907
9030.48426.874
9129.84025.894
9228.95824.716
9328.01023.431
9427.22121.820
9526.18120.628
9625.17719.211
9724.00117.036
9822.18515.036
9919.47412.502


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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