Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1969+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep79.05163.81219.40971.863150.541
Sep-Oct153.420105.96129.078128.407355.651
Sep-Nov201.798133.09936.406169.728473.503

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10299.575340.101
20260.886287.397
30235.892252.990
40215.606221.040
50196.377193.554
60179.836164.741
70162.565138.676
80142.155110.899
90119.17377.838

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1409.830473.627
2382.587431.126
3360.627414.433
4346.931400.686
5335.307390.484
6324.937376.247
7317.427366.194
8310.194356.751
9304.291347.270
10299.575340.101
11293.710334.114
12288.572327.460
13284.663322.376
14281.226317.246
15277.007311.564
16273.880307.017
17269.680301.665
18266.791296.164
19264.078291.278
20260.886287.397
21257.916283.620
22255.434279.383
23252.489276.399
24250.007272.016
25247.442269.249
26244.660266.853
27242.638263.181
28240.633260.244
29238.532256.805
30235.892252.990
31233.090249.469
32231.231245.864
33229.312242.995
34227.113240.147
35225.405236.206
36223.262233.027
37221.225229.829
38219.189226.822
39217.697224.335
40215.606221.040
41213.901217.826
42212.369215.427
43210.505213.393
44208.293210.581
45205.898208.034
46204.166205.160
47202.233202.533
48200.185199.074
49198.694196.432
50196.377193.554
51194.569190.920
52192.949188.264
53191.319185.129
54189.890182.105
55188.239179.008
56186.751175.214
57184.989172.952
58183.503170.652
59181.874168.108
60179.836164.741
61178.411161.347
62176.439158.848
63174.805156.498
64173.325153.590
65171.643151.309
66169.753148.962
67168.250146.756
68166.449143.858
69164.388140.854
70162.565138.676
71160.712135.675
72158.924133.253
73156.929130.389
74155.182127.809
75153.083124.928
76150.560122.334
77148.602119.485
78146.641116.834
79144.626114.277
80142.155110.899
81139.938107.697
82138.008104.625
83135.718101.109
84133.45498.140
85131.91595.550
86130.06992.036
87127.79488.384
88125.21285.423
89122.15081.845
90119.17377.838
91116.61574.071
92113.09269.593
93109.50864.787
94105.40458.893
95100.99754.644
9695.88049.732
9790.61542.533
9881.13136.311
9968.85929.047


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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