Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1969+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Apr14.47548.69517.7065.98214.43238.096
Apr-May34.60593.59439.86712.08529.837123.490
Apr-Jun64.541176.24879.67718.99954.794184.792

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10127.204100.056
20106.68078.470
3094.09266.863
4084.16157.512
5076.13950.382
6068.93143.650
7061.28038.069
8052.95432.481
9043.20725.989

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1187.568184.476
2172.618151.873
3161.863140.699
4154.903132.113
5148.981126.079
6143.924118.114
7138.309112.791
8133.977108.008
9130.143103.407
10127.204100.056
11124.01897.340
12121.49994.405
13119.37892.222
14117.72390.068
15115.79787.740
16114.15385.919
17111.94683.822
18110.26881.719
19108.26879.893
20106.68078.470
21105.10377.109
22103.39975.609
23102.40374.569
24101.38873.066
2599.91572.132
2698.81771.332
2797.72470.122
2896.35469.168
2995.07968.067
3094.09266.863
3192.92165.770
3291.82864.667
3390.78963.802
3489.82262.953
3588.80761.795
3688.04160.875
3787.14459.961
3886.16159.113
3985.19858.420
4084.16157.512
4183.38056.637
4282.59855.992
4381.68955.450
4480.80154.708
4579.96554.042
4679.23753.300
4778.50852.628
4877.63851.754
4976.85751.094
5076.13950.382
5175.37349.738
5274.50349.094
5373.83048.343
5473.08247.625
5572.40246.899
5671.52946.020
5770.91845.501
5870.23744.977
5969.64044.403
6068.93143.650
6168.06342.899
6267.33242.351
6366.58541.840
6465.78241.212
6564.85440.723
6664.25940.223
6763.45639.756
6862.82239.147
6961.90238.520
7061.28038.069
7160.44437.451
7259.58736.955
7358.75736.372
7457.74235.849
7556.93235.269
7656.11634.749
7755.47034.180
7854.69833.654
7953.88733.147
8052.95432.481
8152.14531.851
8251.04031.248
8350.17230.560
8449.41729.979
8548.44429.473
8647.51828.785
8746.56828.070
8845.30327.488
8944.29626.783
9043.20725.989
9141.95625.237
9240.98124.335
9339.50223.353
9438.36622.124
9536.93121.217
9634.92420.141
9732.99518.498
9829.94416.992
9926.43115.095


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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