Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1969+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jun29.93682.65439.81011.13724.95661.302
Jun-Jul79.824184.73898.85024.76866.741241.202
Jun-Aug145.770287.817199.26437.583125.061388.143

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10237.265249.314
20206.344195.699
30182.965165.186
40164.730140.006
50148.797120.619
60133.121102.306
70116.60987.234
8098.12772.349
9075.44455.482

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1321.697415.595
2302.186358.948
3285.437337.502
4274.804320.242
5266.815307.687
6259.219290.557
7253.156278.750
8246.185267.891
9240.748257.222
10237.265249.314
11234.160242.819
12229.351235.718
13225.376230.378
14222.455225.065
15219.483219.270
16217.168214.702
17213.700209.404
18210.522204.047
19208.545199.366
20206.344195.699
21203.989192.174
22201.514188.272
23198.680185.556
24196.120181.616
25193.809179.159
26191.980177.050
27189.427173.851
28187.376171.322
29184.847168.394
30182.965165.186
31180.793162.266
32178.781159.312
33177.096156.990
34175.447154.708
35173.795151.590
36171.682149.108
37169.889146.640
38168.322144.346
39166.779142.468
40164.730140.006
41163.100137.635
42161.562135.883
43160.261134.410
44158.767132.393
45157.271130.583
46154.826128.562
47153.138126.734
48151.715124.354
49150.257122.557
50148.797120.619
51147.172118.864
52145.353117.111
53143.726115.065
54142.502113.112
55140.796111.136
56139.309108.744
57137.901107.334
58136.275105.910
59134.621104.350
60133.121102.306
61131.408100.270
62129.72198.786
63128.14797.401
64126.40795.703
65124.69994.382
66123.13593.033
67121.66591.774
68120.18990.133
69118.75688.447
70116.60987.234
71114.91285.575
72112.98384.245
73111.06182.685
74109.14081.290
75107.22579.742
76105.41178.358
77103.31776.847
78101.68775.450
79100.02274.110
8098.12772.349
8195.86370.690
8293.91669.106
8391.63067.302
8489.32065.785
8587.02664.465
8684.35762.679
8782.62160.826
8880.35259.326
8977.96957.514
9075.44455.482
9172.32153.567
9269.38951.281
9366.01748.810
9462.75345.743
9558.24843.499
9653.29240.861
9748.24536.879
9841.63933.289
9931.11428.856


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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