Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara


  • Jan

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Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1969+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Jan19.98920.28716.7504.01920.27626.667
Jan-Feb35.31937.76128.4956.25642.49751.076
Jan-Mar51.55058.83443.17112.01172.788195.144

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1059.33473.720
2051.66859.982
3046.71851.852
4042.62044.929
5039.05739.443
6035.98234.120
7032.66529.622
8029.22125.066
9024.74119.747

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
184.766113.795
276.965100.420
372.12595.299
469.13991.148
566.95988.110
665.13183.936
763.66481.037
862.22878.353
960.61675.699
1059.33473.720
1158.42772.087
1257.37470.292
1356.60468.936
1455.78567.582
1554.95166.097
1654.19864.922
1753.57163.553
1852.80162.162
1952.29260.942
2051.66859.982
2151.07159.055
2250.42858.026
2349.86357.308
2449.34556.262
2548.74755.607
2648.35155.044
2747.93054.188
2847.44953.508
2947.05452.720
3046.71851.852
3146.24951.060
3245.94150.256
3345.51349.622
3445.09948.997
3544.61848.140
3644.20947.456
3743.82446.774
3843.40846.138
3943.00445.615
4042.62044.929
4142.23944.265
4241.94643.774
4341.52043.360
4441.22442.792
4540.79042.280
4640.49041.708
4740.14641.189
4839.70640.511
4939.37539.998
5039.05739.443
5138.76038.939
5238.38038.434
5338.01337.844
5437.79037.278
5537.48636.704
5637.24436.008
5736.88635.596
5836.57135.179
5936.28834.721
6035.98234.120
6135.71333.518
6235.32833.079
6334.97332.668
6434.61732.163
6534.24531.769
6633.93931.366
6733.69030.989
6833.32930.496
6932.95229.988
7032.66529.622
7132.42229.120
7232.10328.717
7331.79828.243
7431.42127.818
7531.10527.344
7630.66626.920
7730.29126.456
7829.98026.026
7929.62725.612
8029.22125.066
8128.84224.551
8228.27524.057
8327.93923.493
8427.47623.017
8527.00722.602
8626.63622.039
8726.10921.452
8825.68420.975
8925.21820.397
9024.74119.747
9124.24519.131
9223.61018.392
9322.93717.590
9422.41616.587
9521.57315.849
9620.68714.975
9719.28413.645
9817.40812.433
9915.86010.918


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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