Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1969+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1998) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Mar16.23121.07314.6762.94730.291144.068
Mar-Apr30.77938.77935.4568.52545.707192.763
Mar-May50.95560.94055.20012.31362.291237.662

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1067.38074.388
2057.15058.765
3050.15650.312
4044.32843.470
5039.81038.232
6035.84233.265
7031.63129.130
8027.28124.971
9021.99920.113

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1100.072134.636
291.146111.501
384.102103.537
480.88597.404
577.73393.087
675.07087.377
772.75783.556
870.84280.116
969.06176.804
1067.38074.388
1166.18072.428
1265.02470.309
1363.68868.731
1462.53567.174
1561.60465.488
1660.58664.170
1759.79862.650
1859.13561.124
1958.03459.799
2057.15058.765
2156.25157.776
2255.36256.685
2354.71555.929
2454.10454.835
2553.29354.155
2652.75353.572
2752.08852.690
2851.46751.994
2950.83251.191
3050.15650.312
3149.53449.514
3248.79248.709
3348.15548.076
3447.60947.456
3546.99446.608
3646.47545.935
3745.95245.266
3845.42444.645
3944.80044.136
4044.32843.470
4143.81442.829
4243.37142.356
4342.94541.958
4442.45241.413
4542.00040.924
4641.52640.378
4741.14239.884
4840.75039.241
4940.32038.756
5039.81038.232
5139.37837.757
5238.94637.283
5338.50536.729
5438.09936.200
5537.74835.665
5637.37935.016
5737.03234.633
5836.74534.246
5936.24933.821
6035.84233.265
6135.46832.709
6235.10932.304
6334.72931.925
6434.37331.460
6534.01431.098
6633.49630.728
6733.05130.382
6832.56729.930
6932.07229.465
7031.63129.130
7131.23028.671
7230.77628.302
7330.31527.869
7429.93027.480
7529.51227.049
7629.11526.662
7728.67526.238
7828.28825.846
7927.84625.468
8027.28124.971
8126.87424.501
8226.31224.051
8325.91823.537
8425.37623.103
8525.01022.724
8624.39222.210
8723.69221.674
8823.07021.238
8922.60820.709
9021.99920.113
9121.39019.549
9220.66518.870
9319.94318.131
9419.09017.204
9518.23116.520
9617.14115.706
9715.60614.461
9814.24613.317
9912.20011.872


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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