Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


Return to catchment list
Product list for Murray River at Biggara



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1969+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jun30.16139.81041.45711.13727.11061.302
Jun-Jul80.26198.850104.17424.76871.837241.202
Jun-Aug146.991199.264149.03237.583130.701388.143

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10235.979249.314
20205.520195.699
30185.275165.186
40167.722140.006
50151.671120.619
60136.154102.306
70120.45987.234
80102.78572.349
9080.85055.482

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1318.675415.595
2293.904358.948
3283.377337.502
4272.340320.242
5265.300307.687
6258.312290.557
7252.095278.750
8246.584267.891
9240.343257.222
10235.979249.314
11232.135242.819
12228.456235.718
13225.233230.378
14221.312225.065
15218.667219.270
16215.828214.702
17213.328209.404
18210.251204.047
19208.104199.366
20205.520195.699
21203.051192.174
22200.836188.272
23198.188185.556
24196.107181.616
25193.943179.159
26192.014177.050
27190.407173.851
28188.759171.322
29186.949168.394
30185.275165.186
31183.086162.266
32181.583159.312
33180.474156.990
34178.518154.708
35176.342151.590
36174.624149.108
37173.064146.640
38171.501144.346
39169.447142.468
40167.722140.006
41165.986137.635
42164.372135.883
43162.685134.410
44160.941132.393
45159.524130.583
46157.926128.562
47156.279126.734
48154.794124.354
49153.257122.557
50151.671120.619
51150.397118.864
52148.529117.111
53147.053115.065
54145.684113.112
55143.708111.136
56142.408108.744
57140.966107.334
58139.225105.910
59137.901104.350
60136.154102.306
61134.851100.270
62133.50498.786
63132.20097.401
64130.67295.703
65128.91994.382
66126.90693.033
67125.33191.774
68123.72390.133
69122.35688.447
70120.45987.234
71119.02085.575
72116.86684.245
73115.01082.685
74113.34081.290
75111.50079.742
76109.89678.358
77108.23476.847
78106.63075.450
79104.71374.110
80102.78572.349
81100.71670.690
8298.97269.106
8397.21667.302
8494.62365.785
8592.65364.465
8690.15862.679
8787.73860.826
8886.10259.326
8983.64657.514
9080.85055.482
9177.60953.567
9274.49051.281
9371.73948.810
9468.26145.743
9563.73343.499
9658.67840.861
9754.06336.879
9845.40233.289
9935.85928.856


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence