Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara



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Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara ( Jan 2009 )

Historical Observations
Average (1969+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan19.70511.0099.0564.01916.39865.182
Jan-Feb33.17819.43913.3326.25628.57889.647
Jan-Mar45.34125.14917.26012.01138.837106.597

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1052.23473.720
2045.02959.982
3040.59851.852
4037.09344.929
5033.84139.443
6031.14934.120
7028.18729.622
8025.09125.066
9021.19719.747

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
174.779113.795
268.079100.420
363.88895.299
460.83891.148
558.86688.110
657.33283.936
756.01881.037
854.72678.353
953.35575.699
1052.23473.720
1151.19172.087
1250.37470.292
1349.49368.936
1448.83267.582
1548.20166.097
1647.53164.922
1747.00063.553
1846.28462.162
1945.64360.942
2045.02959.982
2144.54859.055
2244.13958.026
2343.48757.308
2443.04056.262
2542.71355.607
2642.18755.044
2741.81754.188
2841.49153.508
2941.05152.720
3040.59851.852
3140.30751.060
3239.92350.256
3339.48049.622
3439.21148.997
3538.80348.140
3638.43447.456
3738.12446.774
3837.76246.138
3937.46545.615
4037.09344.929
4136.72844.265
4236.39743.774
4336.12443.360
4435.83242.792
4535.52442.280
4635.17041.708
4734.88541.189
4834.49440.511
4934.21439.998
5033.84139.443
5133.57838.939
5233.31538.434
5333.04237.844
5432.68037.278
5532.47236.704
5632.21136.008
5731.88935.596
5831.59335.179
5931.38834.721
6031.14934.120
6130.87133.518
6230.54833.079
6330.27332.668
6429.97332.163
6529.68331.769
6629.36331.366
6729.03130.989
6828.75330.496
6928.52829.988
7028.18729.622
7127.88829.120
7227.66728.717
7327.36728.243
7427.09327.818
7526.78927.344
7626.44326.920
7726.11226.456
7825.84026.026
7925.47025.612
8025.09125.066
8124.74724.551
8224.33624.057
8323.91423.493
8423.60623.017
8523.24722.602
8622.83122.039
8722.40421.452
8822.00020.975
8921.62820.397
9021.19719.747
9120.71419.131
9220.13018.392
9319.59817.590
9419.01916.587
9518.38415.849
9617.52014.975
9716.41113.645
9814.79112.433
9913.40910.918


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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