Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara


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Product list for Murray River at Biggara



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Historical and exceedance probability for Murray River at Biggara ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1969+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan19.18510.08544.3554.01914.56865.182
Jan-Feb32.39822.101135.2736.25626.61689.647
Jan-Mar44.40136.105187.93312.01136.646106.597

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10107.65073.720
2094.55159.982
3086.21051.852
4079.80244.929
5073.71139.443
6068.32434.120
7062.92129.622
8056.75925.066
9048.83919.747

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1149.142113.795
2135.967100.420
3129.43795.299
4123.75291.148
5120.02988.110
6116.51383.936
7113.94581.037
8111.70578.353
9109.20475.699
10107.65073.720
11105.49472.087
12104.19170.292
13102.78768.936
14101.40767.582
15100.09666.097
1699.02164.922
1798.06963.553
1896.92662.162
1995.78260.942
2094.55159.982
2193.53259.055
2292.59258.026
2391.81057.308
2490.91356.262
2590.00155.607
2689.26355.044
2788.33354.188
2887.69653.508
2987.06252.720
3086.21051.852
3185.43551.060
3284.80250.256
3384.23549.622
3483.63748.997
3582.82248.140
3682.16747.456
3781.58046.774
3881.08546.138
3980.41545.615
4079.80244.929
4179.17344.265
4278.55543.774
4377.91543.360
4477.32542.792
4576.70242.280
4676.10241.708
4775.50341.189
4874.94740.511
4974.36139.998
5073.71139.443
5173.18738.939
5272.60838.434
5371.96337.844
5471.47537.278
5570.94336.704
5670.35136.008
5769.84635.596
5869.36735.179
5968.85334.721
6068.32434.120
6167.72733.518
6267.24233.079
6366.78032.668
6466.22532.163
6565.58731.769
6665.15131.366
6764.64630.989
6864.03630.496
6963.46229.988
7062.92129.622
7162.32729.120
7261.75828.717
7361.21028.243
7460.63427.818
7560.07227.344
7659.51126.920
7758.89326.456
7858.24826.026
7957.60325.612
8056.75925.066
8155.93724.551
8255.01624.057
8354.28723.493
8453.68123.017
8553.12422.602
8652.16322.039
8751.29721.452
8850.46320.975
8949.68720.397
9048.83919.747
9147.33619.131
9246.30418.392
9345.39317.590
9444.49116.587
9542.96615.849
9641.29614.975
9738.97813.645
9836.15412.433
9932.31010.918


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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