Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.32433.011
207.53822.167
305.90216.238
404.75111.765
503.8908.714
603.1526.216
702.5204.463
801.8493.011
901.2081.698

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.02964.356
217.54554.149
315.54950.171
414.25746.916
513.44144.517
612.62341.199
711.87738.883
811.34436.732
910.73434.600
1010.32433.011
119.93531.700
129.61230.262
139.24529.179
148.91428.100
158.60226.924
168.38325.997
178.16224.924
187.94223.843
197.71122.901
207.53822.167
217.35021.464
227.13920.690
236.95920.154
246.81019.382
256.64318.903
266.47918.495
276.30217.879
286.17317.395
296.06516.840
305.90216.238
315.77815.695
325.64615.152
335.51914.728
345.40114.317
355.25413.760
365.15213.323
375.05312.893
384.94712.499
394.85412.179
404.75111.765
414.64211.371
424.55011.084
434.45810.845
444.36610.521
454.28810.233
464.2349.917
474.1559.634
484.0869.271
493.9999.001
503.8908.714
513.8058.458
523.7258.205
533.6457.915
543.5747.642
553.5017.371
563.4357.049
573.3616.862
583.2936.676
593.2276.475
603.1526.216
613.0775.963
623.0225.781
632.9665.615
642.9095.413
652.8435.259
662.7895.104
672.7194.962
682.6484.779
692.5864.594
702.5204.463
712.4494.288
722.3914.150
732.3203.990
742.2563.850
752.1973.698
762.1323.564
772.0733.421
782.0063.291
791.9233.168
801.8493.011
811.7872.866
821.7332.731
831.6762.581
841.6172.458
851.5492.353
861.4892.215
871.4062.076
881.3481.967
891.2741.838
901.2081.698
911.1231.572
921.0271.426
930.9601.276
940.8761.100
950.7980.979
960.6730.844
970.5620.656
980.4240.503
990.2070.335


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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