Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.554
209.672
307.499
405.789
504.558
603.487
702.687
801.977
901.280

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
124.872
221.158
319.717
418.541
517.676
616.484
715.653
814.883
914.122
1013.554
1113.086
1212.573
1312.186
1411.801
1511.381
1611.049
1710.665
1810.276
199.937
209.672
219.418
229.137
238.942
248.660
258.485
268.335
278.108
287.930
297.724
307.499
317.296
327.091
336.931
346.775
356.563
366.395
376.229
386.076
395.951
405.789
415.633
425.520
435.424
445.295
455.179
465.051
474.936
484.788
494.677
504.558
514.451
524.345
534.223
544.107
553.991
563.852
573.771
583.690
593.602
603.487
613.374
623.293
633.218
643.127
653.057
662.985
672.919
682.834
692.748
702.687
712.603
722.537
732.461
742.393
752.319
762.253
772.182
782.118
792.056
801.977
811.903
821.834
831.756
841.692
851.636
861.563
871.488
881.428
891.357
901.280
911.208
921.125
931.038
940.934
950.860
960.777
970.657
980.556
990.441


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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