Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1077.01562.361
2063.94848.630
3055.32139.846
4047.42531.977
5041.32225.598
6035.52519.500
7029.22314.655
8022.75010.277
9015.5636.092

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1116.67897.495
2103.27686.298
396.40781.902
491.44378.283
587.73475.597
685.09671.853
782.91969.210
880.72666.729
979.07064.241
1077.01562.361
1175.43860.793
1273.77859.051
1372.40257.722
1471.11856.383
1569.56854.901
1668.32353.717
1766.94752.326
1866.05750.898
1964.95449.633
2063.94848.630
2163.06747.656
2262.18646.566
2361.28445.799
2460.33244.677
2559.59543.969
2658.67243.358
2757.75442.424
2856.85441.678
2956.16240.808
3055.32139.846
3154.42638.962
3253.31838.061
3352.64437.346
3451.94436.639
3551.29835.666
3650.53034.885
3749.76434.103
3848.81333.372
3948.11532.770
4047.42531.977
4146.79831.209
4246.07130.639
4345.49530.158
4444.95529.497
4544.09828.902
4643.45228.236
4742.95627.631
4842.37626.841
4941.84926.244
5041.32225.598
5140.74025.012
5240.11824.427
5339.51323.744
5438.76623.091
5538.22622.431
5637.59921.634
5737.06021.165
5836.57320.692
5936.01820.175
6035.52519.500
6134.72118.830
6234.19318.344
6333.47817.893
6432.97317.342
6532.42516.916
6631.79516.484
6731.09716.082
6830.50415.562
6929.80115.033
7029.22314.655
7128.57214.142
7227.93913.736
7327.38913.263
7426.72412.844
7526.16912.386
7625.50711.980
7724.84011.543
7824.15911.144
7923.36910.766
8022.75010.277
8122.1559.825
8221.4679.401
8320.7678.927
8419.9068.536
8519.1398.203
8618.4607.761
8717.9737.314
8817.0246.960
8916.3856.544
9015.5636.092
9114.5125.680
9213.6325.205
9312.5744.715
9411.7274.140
9510.1173.742
969.0893.299
978.0532.684
986.8642.184
995.3241.638


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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