Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1061.12261.224
2050.39747.792
3042.79239.057
4036.47931.058
5030.87124.407
6025.75017.923
7020.75412.774
8015.8028.280
9010.3654.329

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
191.11595.221
283.52084.407
377.31080.158
473.74976.658
570.65074.060
668.25370.434
765.93767.873
864.36365.467
962.41063.051
1061.12261.224
1159.76359.698
1258.57958.002
1357.17056.706
1456.31655.398
1555.10053.949
1654.11852.791
1753.09351.427
1852.26550.025
1951.38548.780
2050.39747.792
2149.55846.831
2248.74245.753
2347.89444.994
2447.07543.880
2546.42743.177
2645.57842.569
2744.77841.637
2844.04840.893
2943.34740.022
3042.79239.057
3142.14238.168
3241.47337.259
3340.88436.537
3440.12935.821
3539.50734.832
3638.89234.037
3738.20633.239
3837.65832.491
3937.10831.873
4036.47931.058
4135.88530.265
4235.42129.676
4334.80929.177
4434.26628.491
4533.66027.871
4633.07627.176
4732.60326.543
4831.99225.715
4931.36525.087
5030.87124.407
5130.35823.789
5229.85423.169
5329.25322.445
5428.75921.752
5528.28421.050
5627.72120.201
5727.24019.700
5826.84519.196
5926.31118.644
6025.75017.923
6125.18617.208
6224.76516.689
6324.32316.207
6423.63615.621
6523.10715.167
6622.63114.707
6722.23914.281
6821.78913.731
6921.33213.172
7020.75412.774
7120.17612.236
7219.65611.811
7319.22811.319
7418.76710.886
7518.35110.413
7617.8829.997
7717.3589.552
7816.7749.148
7916.1528.768
8015.8028.280
8115.2407.832
8214.7927.416
8314.2566.956
8413.6636.581
8513.1206.264
8612.6015.848
8712.0355.432
8811.5385.108
8911.0024.732
9010.3654.329
919.5203.968
928.7793.560
938.1863.148
947.4952.678
956.7442.362
965.9032.020
975.0071.564
983.9001.211
992.4880.848


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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