Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1042.70246.561
2033.48634.605
3027.33227.080
4022.60320.551
5019.03315.530
6015.78711.072
7012.7377.825
809.8105.140
906.5982.806

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
170.64877.337
261.85667.525
356.16963.673
452.51960.502
550.17458.149
648.27854.869
746.82852.554
845.31950.383
943.82548.205
1042.70246.561
1141.29845.191
1240.23043.670
1339.36242.510
1438.42441.341
1537.40240.050
1636.51439.019
1735.78037.810
1834.82236.570
1934.21135.473
2033.48634.605
2132.71433.763
2231.98932.823
2331.40432.163
2430.80131.198
2530.28630.591
2629.60730.068
2729.11829.270
2828.39028.635
2927.92927.895
3027.33227.080
3126.76526.334
3226.31125.575
3325.72924.976
3425.25324.386
3524.69623.576
3624.25522.929
3723.89222.285
3823.47021.686
3923.01621.195
4022.60320.551
4122.17619.931
4221.80819.473
4321.49319.089
4421.20718.563
4520.75918.092
4620.46517.568
4720.01817.096
4819.71916.483
4919.35116.023
5019.03315.530
5118.64515.086
5218.29914.645
5317.97914.134
5417.74413.651
5517.36313.167
5617.04212.588
5716.72512.250
5816.43811.912
5916.05911.546
6015.78711.072
6115.46410.606
6215.18210.272
6314.9069.964
6414.5989.591
6514.2809.306
6613.9319.017
6713.6348.752
6813.3248.411
6913.0418.068
7012.7377.825
7112.4017.498
7212.1007.241
7311.8196.945
7411.5146.685
7511.2006.403
7610.9246.155
7710.6715.891
7810.4055.652
7910.1395.427
809.8105.140
819.5234.876
829.1324.631
838.7824.361
848.5054.140
858.2303.953
867.9073.708
877.6153.462
887.2353.270
896.9143.046
906.5982.806
916.2212.589
925.9032.343
935.4762.093
945.0681.804
954.5941.608
964.0961.394
973.5211.103
982.8610.873
991.9500.630


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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