Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1065.34662.361
2052.86948.630
3044.51739.846
4037.32631.977
5031.84825.598
6026.59419.500
7021.38714.655
8016.33310.277
9010.8116.092

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1103.15197.495
290.22986.298
384.36381.902
479.54878.283
575.56675.597
673.07271.853
770.42469.210
869.14766.729
967.15764.241
1065.34662.361
1163.80660.793
1262.23659.051
1360.72557.722
1459.41856.383
1558.29854.901
1656.92453.717
1755.59752.326
1854.59050.898
1953.72149.633
2052.86948.630
2152.01847.656
2251.14646.566
2350.26045.799
2449.32944.677
2548.37843.969
2647.47943.358
2746.79542.424
2845.97141.678
2945.25540.808
3044.51739.846
3143.41838.962
3242.69238.061
3341.92137.346
3441.37136.639
3540.66335.666
3640.14234.885
3739.49234.103
3838.76733.372
3937.96832.770
4037.32631.977
4136.68631.209
4236.17630.639
4335.51330.158
4434.98529.497
4534.42128.902
4633.82928.236
4733.18027.631
4832.76726.841
4932.37226.244
5031.84825.598
5131.30225.012
5230.76624.427
5330.15423.744
5429.57023.091
5529.01622.431
5628.56121.634
5728.13721.165
5827.62720.692
5927.09520.175
6026.59419.500
6126.05018.830
6225.57818.344
6325.17117.893
6424.67917.342
6523.98516.916
6623.57616.484
6723.05616.082
6822.47715.562
6921.84415.033
7021.38714.655
7120.93114.142
7220.38613.736
7319.97613.263
7419.51612.844
7518.94912.386
7618.39811.980
7717.95611.543
7817.39011.144
7916.84510.766
8016.33310.277
8115.8939.825
8215.4139.401
8314.8828.927
8414.1858.536
8513.6528.203
8613.0307.761
8712.5457.314
8812.0556.960
8911.4806.544
9010.8116.092
9110.2055.680
929.4195.205
938.6414.715
947.9804.140
956.9323.742
966.2073.299
975.3572.684
984.5382.184
993.3951.638


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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