Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic



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Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic ( Jan 2012 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.8786.458
204.4124.295
303.5853.177
402.9732.351
502.4781.785
602.1021.313
701.7020.973
801.3410.679
900.9480.400

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
111.63813.390
29.89011.064
38.82610.170
48.1829.446
57.6048.917
67.0848.194
76.6767.695
86.3257.237
96.0766.789
105.8786.458
115.6486.188
125.4405.894
135.2985.675
145.1195.458
154.9705.224
164.8645.040
174.7154.830
184.5914.619
194.4904.437
204.4124.295
214.3044.161
224.2294.013
234.1443.912
244.0623.766
253.9693.675
263.8873.599
273.8223.483
283.7583.393
293.6713.289
303.5853.177
313.5173.077
323.4572.976
333.4022.898
343.3272.822
353.2652.719
363.2092.638
373.1442.559
383.0852.486
393.0352.427
402.9732.351
412.9212.278
422.8792.225
432.8082.181
442.7562.121
452.7122.068
462.6732.009
472.6271.957
482.5721.889
492.5321.839
502.4781.785
512.4351.737
522.3931.690
532.3521.636
542.3151.584
552.2741.533
562.2461.472
572.2161.437
582.1771.401
592.1371.363
602.1021.313
612.0611.265
622.0201.230
631.9761.198
641.9341.159
651.9001.129
661.8621.099
671.8171.071
681.7841.035
691.7430.998
701.7020.973
711.6700.938
721.6340.910
731.5930.878
741.5550.850
751.5280.820
761.4870.792
771.4480.763
781.4060.737
791.3730.712
801.3410.679
811.3050.649
821.2570.621
831.2260.590
841.1920.564
851.1590.542
861.1120.512
871.0610.483
881.0210.459
890.9850.431
900.9480.400
910.9050.372
920.8420.340
930.7840.306
940.7140.266
950.6470.238
960.5950.206
970.5190.161
980.4320.123
990.3280.081


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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