Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Probability distribution for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.6391.992
Median2.4104.119
Mean2.7315.947
75% Quartile3.4617.940
Interquartile Range1.8225.948

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.00827.941
26.99422.934
36.31721.040
45.87719.522
55.59218.423
65.43116.934
75.23715.917
85.04714.990
94.89814.089
104.76013.428
114.58912.890
124.47712.308
134.38611.874
144.28311.446
154.19510.984
164.08710.623
174.00610.209
183.9209.795
193.8379.437
203.7709.159
213.6968.895
223.6298.605
233.5648.405
243.5078.118
253.4627.940
263.4127.788
273.3577.560
283.3117.382
293.2687.176
303.2076.954
313.1646.753
323.1156.552
333.0716.396
343.0266.243
352.9776.037
362.9365.874
372.8905.714
382.8585.566
392.8195.446
402.7765.291
412.7285.142
422.6995.033
432.6644.942
442.6344.819
452.5934.709
462.5474.587
472.5174.478
482.4804.337
492.4404.232
502.4104.119
512.3744.018
522.3383.918
532.3043.802
542.2723.693
552.2343.583
562.2033.452
572.1773.375
582.1503.298
592.1203.215
602.0873.106
612.0603.000
622.0322.922
632.0052.851
641.9762.764
651.9472.698
661.9102.630
671.8742.567
681.8502.486
691.8172.404
701.7902.345
711.7572.265
721.7282.202
731.7002.129
741.6672.063
751.6391.992
761.6111.929
771.5741.860
781.5471.797
791.5141.738
801.4771.661
811.4441.589
821.4081.521
831.3791.444
841.3321.381
851.2971.327
861.2581.254
871.2291.179
881.1871.120
891.1301.049
901.0840.971
911.0340.899
920.9970.815
930.9570.726
940.9170.619
950.8560.542
960.7930.455
970.7120.329
980.6110.220
990.4520.094


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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